Leaning on recent form, weight changes

 

By Asher Butt

 

The 11th Day: Lahore Winter Meeting 2026-2027
Sunday, 15th November 2026 | 7 Races | First Race 12:30 PM
Races 1, 2 over 1000m | Races 3, 4, 7 over 1100m | Race 5 over 1400m | Race 6 over 1300m

After assessing the recent races, one has leaned on recent form and on weight changes this time, because top weight alone has not been winning the meetings.

 

Race 1 · 12:30 PM: Class VII Division VII (Maiden), 1000m

Field of 13

#	Horse	Weight
1	Cheezious 3	9-0
2	Daada Jan 10	9-0
3	Lucky Badshah 8	9-0
4	Naughty Cloud 9	8-11
5	Badal 12	8-10
6	Miss Coca Cola 4	8-9
7	Jutt Gee 5	8-8
8	Tiger 2	8-8
9	Tehran Shan 7	8-7
10	Biscuit 6	8-6
11	Raees Sahib 13	7-10
12	Hassan Star 11	7-10
13	Good Boy 14	7-10

Book Fav: Tiger | Book Place: Miss Coca Cola | Book Fluke: Jutt Gee

My Fav: Tiger | My Place: Tehran Shan | My Fluke: Cheezious

My reasoning: Thirteen runners and three joint top weights make this the least predictable race of the day. Tiger ran second on Day 9 at 8-13 and is down 5 pounds to 8-8, so I agree with the book. Tehran Shan was third on Day 10 and is up only 3 pounds, which makes it my place. Cheezious, Daada Jan and Lucky Badshah are three horses at 9-0 that I have no form on, so my fluke of Cheezious is a tiebreak and nothing more. Badal was at 9-0 and unplaced on Day 10, and is now down to 8-10. Jutt Gee was the book's favourite on Day 10 and missed the frame.

 

Race 2 · 1:05 PM: Class VII Division VII, 1000m

Field of 6

#	Horse	Weight
1	Mid Night Grace 6	9-2
2	Zaman Sahib 3	8-10
3	Sher Dil 4	8-6
4	Sosig Go 7	7-12
5	Silent Melody 2	7-12
6	Pocket Power 5	7-10

Book Fav: Mid Night Grace | Book Place: Zaman Sahib | Book Fluke: Sher Dil

My Fav: Mid Night Grace | My Place: Zaman Sahib | My Fluke: Silent Melody

My reasoning: Mid Night Grace ran second on Day 10 at 7-8 and has been raised 22 pounds to 9-2. The handicapper clearly rates it, but Wake Up's 20-pound rise to 9-2 on Day 10 ended in third. In a field of six with the next-best 4 pounds lighter, I still make it the favourite, but without much conviction. Zaman Sahib is second in the weights and was second on Day 6. Silent Melody was third on Day 9 and is down 12 pounds to 7-12, a drop that looks like a chance for a frame finish. I prefer it to Sher Dil as the fluke.

 

Race 3 · 1:40 PM: Class VII Division V & VI, 1100m

Field of 8

#	Horse	Weight
1	Talent Again 6	9-0
2	Raja The Great 4	8-10
3	Thunder Pride 3	8-10
4	Wake Up 7	8-2
5	Piyari 9	8-0
6	Naveed-e-Sahar 5	7-12
7	Abdullah Pasrur 2	7-10
8	True Promise 8	7-10

Book Fav: Talent Again | Book Place: Raja The Great | Book Fluke: Thunder Pride

My Fav: Thunder Pride | My Place: Talent Again | My Fluke: Wake Up

My reasoning: Thunder Pride won on Day 10 at 8-10 and carries the same weight again, with no penalty for winning. Talent Again won on Day 8 at 8-0 and is up 16 pounds to 9-0, the same kind of jump that has hurt other horses this meeting. I put it second. Raja The Great is 8-10, same as Thunder Pride, but has not shown the recent form. Wake Up was third on Day 10 at 9-2 and has now dropped 14 pounds to 8-2, which makes it my fluke.

 

Race 4 · 2:15 PM: Makkah Joint Defence Cup, Class VII Division II (Maiden), 1100m

Field of 11

#	Horse	Weight
1	Abra Ka Dabra 3	8-8
2	Black Jet 9	8-8
3	Khokhar Palace 4	8-8
4	Red Jet 12	8-8
5	Good Day 5	8-6
6	Kitten's Boy 8	8-6
7	Mera Sultan 11	8-6
8	Son of Gujrat 10	8-6
9	Bin Sardar 6	8-4
10	Pakistani Queen 7	8-3
11	She Is Back 2	8-3

Book: No declared favourite for this maiden

My Fav: Pakistani Queen | My Place: Good Day | My Fluke: Abra Ka Dabra

My reasoning: The weights are almost level, so form is the only guide. Pakistani Queen has finished third in both the Nonchal Cup and the Neelam Cup, and it is carrying the lightest weight of the group at 8-3. Good Day ran in the Neelam Cup and sits at 8-6, a little ahead of the other Neelam runners (Bin Sardar, Son of Gujrat, She Is Back) who did not frame. Abra Ka Dabra is a joint top weight at 8-8, and with four horses on that weight I picked it from the group as an outside chance. I'd treat this as an open race.

 

Race 5 · 2:50 PM: The November Cup, 3-Year-Old Term Race, 1400m

Field of 9

#	Horse	Weight
1	Green Card 4	9-4
2	Sikandar 6	9-4
3	Tomorrowland 7	9-4
4	Queen of Pharaoh 9	9-1
5	Mayya 2	8-10
6	Ameera 10	8-7
7	Chasing Eden 5	8-7
8	Chaman 8	8-4
9	Bella Two 3	8-1

Book Fav: Chasing Eden | Book Place: Tomorrowland | Book Fluke: Bella Two

My Fav: Chasing Eden | My Place: Tomorrowland | My Fluke: Sikandar

My reasoning: Chasing Eden finished second to Tomorrowland in the PHL Cup over 1400m on Day 8. It carried 8-7 then and carries 8-7 now, while Tomorrowland has gone from 9-2 to 9-4. The gap between them has widened by 2 pounds and it was a narrow finish, so I agree with the book. Tomorrowland remains a serious chance as the winner of that race. Sikandar won the Class VI on Day 10 and has been raised 18 pounds to 9-4, so I give it a frame chance as my fluke and am wary of such a big rise. Bella Two ran second on Day 8 at 8-12, so it is a reasonable book fluke, but I prefer Sikandar's form.

 

Race 6 · 3:25 PM: Class VII Division I & II, 1300m

Field of 10 (+ 3 supplementaries)

#	Horse	Weight
1	Ghuroor 2	8-12
2	Moni Prince 10	8-11
3	Eden Queen 8 (subject to stewards' approval)	8-8
4	Moni Ki Chahat 6	8-7
5	Bunty Bella 11	8-7
6	Adaab 7	8-4
7	Murshad 9	8-3
8	Peelo Wains 4	8-3
9	Pakistani Champion 5	8-1
10	Farrier Star 3	8-0

Book Fav: Pakistani Champion | Book Place: Peelo Wains | Book Fluke: Eden Queen

My Fav: Peelo Wains | My Place: Pakistani Champion | My Fluke: Moni Prince

My reasoning: Peelo Wains won on Day 9 at 8-6 and is down 3 pounds to 8-3, which makes it my favourite. Pakistani Champion finished second on Day 10 and has been raised from 7-10 to 8-1, so I put it second, not first. Moni Prince finished second on Day 9 and remains close to the top of the weights. Eden Queen is a book fluke, but it was only third on Day 9 and has been raised 8 pounds, and it runs subject to stewards' approval. Three supplementaries could change the race at declaration time.

 

Race 7 · 4:00 PM: Class VII Division IV, 1100m

Field of 6 (+ 6 supplementaries)

#	Horse	Weight
1	Dar Princess 3	8-10
2	Mister Sardar 7	8-10
3	Shibra 4	8-6
4	Haseeb Thunder 6	8-2
5	Gondal Baba 5	8-2
6	Singhar 2	8-2

Book Fav: Haseeb Thunder | Book Place: Mister Sardar | Book Fluke: Gondal Baba

My Fav: Haseeb Thunder | My Place: Singhar | My Fluke: Dar Prince (see note)

My reasoning: Haseeb Thunder won on Day 5 at 7-8 and was second on Day 7, and it now carries 8-2, so I agree with the book. Singhar finished third on Day 9 and shares the same 8-2, which makes it my place. Dar Princess is a joint top weight at 8-10, and I pick it as the fluke. Mister Sardar shares that weight and is the book's place, so it could easily frame. With six supplementaries still to come, this card may change.