LRC 3rd winter meeting day pre-race assessment

 

LRC 3rd winter meeting day pre-race assessment

By Asher Butt

 

3rd Day — Lahore Winter Meeting 2026-2027
Sunday, 20th September 2026 | 5 Races | First Race 2:30 PM
Races 1, 2, 3, 5 over 1000m | Race 4 (September Cup) over 1200m

 

Race 1 · 2:30 PM — Class VII Division VII — 1000m

Field of 8

#	Horse	Weight
1	Torpedo 6	9-0
2	Bilal One 5	8-8
3	Bella Nova 4	8-5
4	Gallop In Glory 7	7-12
5	Pocket Power 3	7-12
6	American Star 8	7-10
7	Raees Sahib 2	7-10
8	Flokey 9	7-10

Book Fav: Bilal One | Book Place: Pocket Power | Book Fluke: Bella Nova

My Fav: Torpedo | My Place: Bilal One | My Fluke: Bella Nova

My reasoning: Torpedo (9-0) carries the outright top weight — 6 pounds ahead of Bilal One, 9 ahead of Bella Nova, and a full 14 pounds clear of the bottom cluster at 7-10. On 1000m, the full distance where weight authority matters most, the handicapper's 9-0 allocation to Torpedo is the definitive call of this race. The book making Bilal One (8-8) the favourite despite conceding 6 pounds to the top weight over 1000m is a form-over-weight call — and Winter Meeting Day 2 showed us clearly that the book's form picks can win at 900m but over 1000m the top weight has reasserted itself (Pakiza at 9-0 won Race 5 on Day 2 at the full distance). My favourite is Torpedo. Bilal One (8-8) is my place — the book's confidence is earned, it has won multiple times this season, and at second weight it sits in the natural place position. Bella Nova (8-5) is my fluke — both the book and I agree here, and its third-position weight in an eight-horse field makes it a credible frame candidate at the full distance.

 

Race 2 · 3:05 PM — Class VII Division VI — 1000m

Field of 9 (+ Intesar Choice supplementary)

#	Horse	Weight
1	Gold Nation 6	9-2
2	Tiger of Sultan 3	8-10
3	True Promise 2	8-10
4	Dani Princess 8	8-9
5	Royal Stone 7	8-4
6	Sky Warrior 9	8-2
7	Time Pass 10	8-2
8	Largess 8	8-0
9	King Asia 5	7-12
+sup	Intesar Choice	—

Book Fav: Gold Nation | Book Place: Tiger of Sultan | Book Fluke: Royal Stone

My Fav: Gold Nation | My Place: True Promise | My Fluke: Tiger of Sultan

My reasoning: Full agreement on the favourite — Gold Nation (9-2) carries the highest weight allocation on the entire card across all five races. At 9-2, a full 6 pounds ahead of Tiger of Sultan and True Promise, and 16 pounds clear of King Asia at the bottom, this is a commanding weight statement in Division VI over 1000m. Gold Nation has been one of the most consistent top-weight performers of the meeting cycle — it won Race 5 on Day 5 of the Summer Meeting, has repeatedly framed under heavy allocations, and the handicapper's elevation to 9-2 confirms its status as the recognised class act of this division. My favourite is Gold Nation without reservation. The divergence is in place and fluke: the book selects Tiger of Sultan (8-10) as place and Royal Stone (8-4) as fluke. I prefer True Promise (8-10) as place — it shares the same weight as Tiger of Sultan but has been a more consistent frame performer in recent outings, finishing third in Race 2 of the War Heroes Cup. Tiger of Sultan drops to my fluke — it carries joint second weight and has shown form throughout the season.

 

Race 3 · 3:40 PM — Class VII Division IV & V — 1000m

Field of 6 (+ X Ragnar supplementary)

#	Horse	Weight
1	Raja The Great 2	9-2
2	Fakhar-e-Sardar 4	9-0
3	Thunder Speed 7	8-6
4	Sea of Class 5	8-4
5	Singhar 6	8-2
6	Dogar Choice 3	8-0
+sup	X Ragnar	—

Book Fav: Raja The Great | Book Place: Fakhar-e-Sardar | Book Fluke: Thunder Speed

My Fav: Raja The Great | My Place: Fakhar-e-Sardar | My Fluke: Sea of Class

My reasoning: Complete agreement with the book on the top two — this is the most clearly structured race on the card. Raja The Great (9-2) carries the outright top weight, 2 pounds ahead of Fakhar-e-Sardar (9-0) in a six-horse Division IV & V field over 1000m. Both horses carry exceptional weight allocations and the handicapper has drawn a clear hierarchy. My favourite is Raja The Great. Fakhar-e-Sardar (9-0) is my place — this horse has been one of the most analytically compelling selections of the entire meeting cycle, winning Race 2 on Day 3 of the Summer Meeting, placing repeatedly across multiple divisions, and now returning at 9-0 in Division IV & V. At second highest weight, it is the natural place selection. The divergence is in the fluke: the book selects Thunder Speed (8-6) while I prefer Sea of Class (8-4). Sea of Class won Race 2 on Day 10 of the Summer Meeting from bottom weight and was subsequently elevated to 9-2 for the War Heroes Cup. At 8-4 here, it carries a reduced weight in a slightly lower division — a horse of its established class running below its previous weight ceiling is always a fluke candidate. Thunder Speed is credible but Sea of Class's division-crossing form history gives it the narrower edge.

 

Race 4 · 4:15 PM — The September Cup — Class VI — 1200m

Field of 4

#	Horse	Weight
1	Nisha 1	9-4
2	Green Card 3	7-12
3	Pakiza 5	7-12
4	Public Star 2	7-10

Book Fav: Green Card | Book Place: Public Star | Book Fluke: Nisha

My Fav: Nisha | My Place: Pakiza | My Fluke: Green Card

My reasoning: The September Cup is the feature race of the card and the weight structure makes the analytical case impossible to ignore. Nisha (9-4) carries the most extraordinary weight allocation of the entire meeting — 20 pounds ahead of Green Card and Pakiza (both at 7-12) and 22 pounds clear of Public Star (7-10). In a four-horse field over the extended 1200m distance, a 20-pound weight advantage is not merely significant — it is structurally decisive. The book makes Green Card (7-12) the favourite and designates Nisha the fluke — an inversion so stark it demands a response. At 1200m, weight carries even more authority than at 1000m. The August Cup and the War Heroes Cup both demonstrated that over extended distances, the top weight — when it carries a genuine 9-0 or above allocation — consistently prevails. Nisha at 9-4 in a four-horse Class VI cup race over 1200m is my favourite with complete conviction. Pakiza (7-12) is my place — it won the Sawar Muhammad Hussain Cup on Winter Day 2 over 1000m and is the most proven race winner in this field. Green Card (7-12) drops to my fluke — it won Race 4 of the Major Shabbir Sharif Cup in the War Heroes meeting and carries legitimate form claims, but concedes 20 pounds to Nisha over the longest trip on the card. Public Star (7-10) as the book's place at the bottom weight over 1200m in Class VI is analytically the weakest position in the field.

 

Race 5 · 4:50 PM — Class VII Division III & IV — 1000m

Field of 8

#	Horse	Weight
1	Zohan The Thunder 2	9-2
2	Desert Parri 6	8-6
3	Falco 5	8-6
4	Shair-e-Niaz Baig 9	8-6
5	Emerging Star 3	8-4
6	Be A Man 4	7-12
7	Paddington 7	7-10
8	Haseeb Thunder 8	7-8

Book Fav: Emerging Star | Book Place: Falco | Book Fluke: Be A Man

My Fav: Zohan The Thunder | My Place: Desert Parri | My Fluke: Falco

My reasoning: The book and I diverge sharply on this closer. Zohan The Thunder (9-2) carries the outright top weight — 10 pounds ahead of Desert Parri, Falco, and Shair-e-Niaz Baig, and a full 14 pounds ahead of the book's favourite Emerging Star (8-4). The book making Emerging Star the favourite at 8-4 while Zohan The Thunder carries 9-2 over 1000m in Division III & IV repeats the analytical pattern we have seen throughout this meeting: the book consistently prefers form horses at mid-range weights over the top weight allocation. However, Winter Day 2 confirmed that at 1000m in senior divisions, top weight wins — Pakiza at 9-0 won Race 5, and the War Heroes Cup's extended distance races produced top-weight winners. Zohan The Thunder at 9-2 in Division III & IV over 1000m is my favourite. Desert Parri (8-6) at joint second weight is my place — sitting in the classic frame position below the commanding top weight. Falco (8-6) is my fluke — sharing joint second weight with Desert Parri and Shair-e-Niaz Baig, it has been a consistent performer across Division III & IV throughout the season and carries the credibility to frame. Emerging Star (8-4) as the book's favourite — conceding 12 pounds to the top weight over 1000m — is a form call I cannot support over the full distance in this division despite its consistent performances throughout the meeting cycle.

Favourites reassert control as Pakiza steals spotlight

By Asher Butt and Abid Sultan

The second day of the Lahore Winter Meeting 2026–27 produced a sharp contrast to the opening card, as four favourites—Roxy, Singhar, Sultan Again and Bellatrix—lived up to expectations. However, the final race again reminded race followers of the unpredictability of the Lahore Race Club circuit when Pakiza emerged with a notable upset victory.

The five-race programme, held on Sunday, featured cups named in honour of Pakistan’s war heroes, including recipients of the Nishan-e-Haider. Before the meeting, Roxy, Singhar, Sultan Again and Bellatrix had been identified as leading runners in their respective events.

Roxy opens card in style

Favourite Roxy began the meeting on the right note by winning the opening Defence Day Cup in a time of 55 and 2/5 seconds.

Roxy’s victory confirmed the pre-race assessment, but the following places produced an unexpected finish. Bella Nova, who had not been regarded among the strongest place prospects, ran well to secure second position. One Side also exceeded expectations by completing the top three.

The result showed that while the favourite delivered, the supporting positions remained difficult to predict. Roxy’s success gave the day a more orderly start than the first Winter Meeting, where favourites had struggled throughout the programme.

Result: Roxy — Bella Nova — One Side

Singhar delivers under Safdar Ali

The second race, the Naik Saif Ali Janjua Shaheed Nishan-e-Haider Cup, saw favourite Singhar produce a convincing winning performance under rider Safdar Ali.

Singhar had been among the leading selections and delivered with authority, confirming the confidence placed in the runner before the race. However, the fight for the minor positions again produced surprises.

Royal Stone, a largely overlooked entry, surged into second place, while Naveed-e-Sehar finished third. The unexpected finishing order behind Singhar emphasised that form analysis may correctly identify a winner but still struggle to predict the complete podium.

Result: Singhar — Royal Stone — Naveed-e-Sehar

Sultan Again rules third event

Favourite Sultan Again continued the trend in the third race, the Hawaldar Lalak Jan Shaheed Nishan-e-Haider Cup, winning in 53 and 4/5 seconds.

The runner’s victory represented another successful favourite on the card, but Sea Of Class surprised observers by claiming second place. Princess Arooj, also not among the leading anticipated performers, finished third.

Sultan Again’s performance was especially notable for its quick time and demonstrated strong speed over the short distance. The race also confirmed a developing feature of the day: favourites were winning, but the exacta and place positions remained unpredictable.

Result: Sultan Again — Sea Of Class — Princess Arooj

Bellatrix shines in 53 seconds

The fourth event, the Lance Naik Muhammad Mahfuz Shaheed Nishan-e-Haider Cup, belonged to favourite Bellatrix, who produced one of the strongest performances of the meeting.

Bellatrix completed the race in 53 seconds, demonstrating pace and control to justify favouritism. The runner’s success further strengthened the day’s pattern, with four of the first four favourites converting their status into victories.

Behind Bellatrix, Mister Sardar surprised by finishing second, while Emerging Star took third position. The two minor-place outcomes showed that, despite the favourites’ dominance, the supporting market selections did not consistently translate into podium results.

Result: Bellatrix — Mister Sardar — Emerging Star

Pakiza produces final-race upset

The final event, the Sawar Muhammad Hussain Shaheed Nishan-e-Haider Cup, broke the favourite-winning pattern when Pakiza produced an upset victory.

Pakiza completed the race in one minute and overcame fluke selection Construct Craft in the closing stages. Construct Craft fought well but had to settle for second place, while First Love and Imperius were involved in a dead heat behind the leading pair.

The final race offered an important reminder that no card can be treated as predictable simply because favourites have performed earlier. Pakiza’s victory ensured that the meeting ended with a surprise, just as the first Winter Meeting had delivered a series of shock results across all seven races. The opening meeting had seen upset winners in Midnight Grace, Ghazal, Dogar Choice and Emerging Star, showing that the Lahore Winter circuit has remained highly competitive.

Result: Pakiza — Construct Craft — First Love / Imperius (dead heat)

Results at a Glance

Race	Cup	Winner	Second	Third	Time	Assessment
1st	Defence Day Cup	Roxy	Bella Nova	One Side	55 2/5 sec	Favourite won; minor places surprised
2nd	Naik Saif Ali Janjua Shaheed NH Cup	Singhar	Royal Stone	Naveed-e-Sehar	Not stated	Favourite won; unexpected place finishers
3rd	Hawaldar Lalak Jan Shaheed NH Cup	Sultan Again	Sea Of Class	Princess Arooj	53 4/5 sec	Favourite won; surprise runners placed
4th	Lance Naik Muhammad Mahfuz Shaheed NH Cup	Bellatrix	Mister Sardar	Emerging Star	53 sec	Favourite won; unexpected second and third
5th	Sawar Muhammad Hussain Shaheed NH Cup	Pakiza	Construct Craft	First Love / Imperius	1 min	Upset win; dead heat for lower position

Prediction Analysis

The pre-race analysis accurately identified four winners:

• Roxy won the opening race as favourite.
• Singhar justified favouritism in the second event.
• Sultan Again delivered in the third race.
• Bellatrix completed a strong winning run in the fourth contest.

The only favourite to miss out was Rafah in the fifth race, where Pakiza emerged as the upset winner. Construct Craft, selected as the fluke entry, ran a highly creditable race to finish second and validated its status as a danger runner.

However, the results also showed that the place selections did not perform as expected. Grace, Largess, Messi, Falco and Classic Mystery failed to occupy the predicted principal positions. Instead, Bella Nova, Royal Stone, Sea Of Class, Mister Sardar, Emerging Star and First Love/Imperius emerged as the surprise performers.

What the card revealed

The meeting offered a useful lesson for racing observers. Backing a favourite to win and correctly predicting the complete finishing order are two very different challenges.

The day’s pattern was clear:

• Four favourites won, suggesting that the leading runners were well assessed in the win market.
• Place outcomes remained volatile, with several unheralded horses securing second and third positions.
• Short-distance races rewarded early speed, particularly in the victories of Roxy, Sultan Again and Bellatrix.
• The final event produced a late upset, proving that one favourite-friendly card does not remove the risk of surprise results.
• Construct Craft’s second-place finish highlighted the importance of identifying capable fluke runners in competitive fields.

The second Winter Meeting therefore offered more confidence for favourite followers than the first card, but it also confirmed that Lahore racing remains difficult to read beyond the winner. The next meeting will test whether this was the beginning of a more reliable form pattern or simply another temporary shift in an unpredictable season. 

LRC 2nd Winter Meet possibilities, reasoning

 

LRC 2^nd Winter Meet possibilities, reasoning

By Asher Butt

 

2nd Day — Lahore Winter Meeting 2026-2027
Sunday, 13th September 2026 | 5 Races | First Race 3:00 PM
Races 1-4 over 900m | Race 5 over 1000m

 

Race 1 · 3:00 PM — Defence Day Cup
Class VII Division VI & VII (Maiden) — 900m

Field of 14

#	Horse	Weight
1	Torpedo 9	9-0
2	Mirza Prince 8	9-0
3	Inside Story 10	9-0
4	Fair Diamond 4	8-10
5	One Side 2	8-10
6	Tehran Shan 7	8-8
7	Roxy 5	8-7
8	Happy Time 12	8-7
9	Al Mutrajiz 15	8-6
10	Bella Nova 6	8-3
11	Grace 14	7-13
12	Mohtarma 11	7-13
13	Raees Sahib 13	7-12
14	Hamdan Prince 3	7-10

Book Fav: Roxy | Book Place: Grace | Book Fluke: Tehran Shan

My Fav: Torpedo / Mirza Prince / Inside Story (joint top) | My Place: Fair Diamond | My Fluke: Tehran Shan

My reasoning: Three horses share the outright top weight of 9-0 — Torpedo, Mirza Prince, and Inside Story — each carrying the full maiden ceiling allocation. The book makes Roxy (8-7) the favourite, conceding 7 pounds to all three top-weight horses over 900m in maiden company. The War Heroes Cup showed that maiden races can produce chaotic results regardless of weight, but the fundamental principle holds: the handicapper's triple 9-0 allocation signals genuine confidence in all three. Among the joint top weights, Torpedo leads my selection as it appears first in the racecard — all three are analytically equivalent but one of them will win. Fair Diamond (8-10) is my place — it appeared in the War Heroes Cup Race 1 field at the same weight and although it did not win that day, it sits in the classic second-position weight band just below the 9-0 ceiling. Tehran Shan (8-8) is my fluke and I agree with the book here — it has been a consistent performer through the Summer Meeting at similar weights and its track familiarity gives it pace credentials over 900m. Roxy (8-7) as the book's favourite at 5 pounds below the joint top weights is a form-over-weight call in maiden company that the Summer Meeting's data does not consistently support at 900m.

 

Race 2 · 3:35 PM — Naik Saif Ali Janju Shaheed Nishan-e-Haider Cup
Class VII Division VI & VII — 900m

Field of 11

#	Horse	Weight
1	Singhar 5	9-0
2	Sky Warrior 10	9-0
3	Royal Stone 7	8-10
4	Largess 3	8-8
5	Babbar Sher 6	8-6
6	Bilal One 2	8-4
7	Naveed-e-Sahar 4	8-4
8	Sosig Go 9	7-12
9	Pocket Power 8	7-8
10	American Star 11	7-8
11	Star Crown 12	7-8

Book Fav: Singhar | Book Place: Largess | Book Fluke: Bilal One

My Fav: Singhar | My Place: Sky Warrior | My Fluke: Royal Stone

My reasoning: Full agreement on the favourite — Singhar (9-0) carries joint top weight with Sky Warrior, and the book correctly identifies Singhar as the primary selection. Singhar earned its 9-0 allocation through recent strong form and on 900m over this distance it is the obvious choice. My favourite is Singhar. The critical divergence is in the place: the book selects Largess (8-8) while Sky Warrior (9-0) shares the outright top weight and is ignored entirely. Two horses at 9-0 in an eleven-runner field — one is the favourite and the other should logically be the place. Sky Warrior carries the same weight authority as Singhar and is my place. Royal Stone (8-10) is my fluke — it has been one of the most reliable top-weight performers of the entire Summer Meeting, winning Race 2 on Day 5 from 9-0 and placing consistently. At 8-10 here it carries a reduced weight that may allow it to express its pace more freely over 900m. Largess (8-8) as the book's place is understandable on form grounds but the 4-pound gap below Sky Warrior's 9-0 is analytically difficult to justify. Bilal One (8-4) as the book's fluke at this meeting deserves respect — it has won and framed multiple times — but Royal Stone's class and track record gives it the narrower edge in my selections.

 

Race 3 · 4:10 PM — Hawaldar Lalak Jan Shaheed Nishan-e-Haider Cup
Class VII Division V & VI — 900m

Field of 11 (- 4 Div VI)

#	Horse	Weight
1	Sea of Class 2	9-2
2	Wake Up 10	9-0
3	Dogar Choice 7	8-12
4	Princess Arooj 4	8-10
5	Tiger of Sultan 12	8-10
6	Lucky Macs 11	8-10
7	Black Fire 8	8-8
8	Messi 6	8-8
9	Ghazal 3	8-4
10	Mid Night Grace 9	8-2
11	Sultan Again 5	7-12

Book Fav: Sultan Again | Book Place: Messi | Book Fluke: Black Fire

My Fav: Sea of Class | My Place: Wake Up | My Fluke: Dogar Choice

My reasoning: The book makes Sultan Again (7-12) the favourite at the absolute bottom of the weight range — conceding a full stone and a half to Sea of Class (9-2) at the top. This is the most extreme weight-versus-form divergence on the entire card. Sea of Class carries 9-2 — the highest individual weight allocation on this racecard — and has been one of the defining horses of the meeting. It won Race 2 on Day 10 of the Summer Meeting, reached joint top weight in Race 3 of the War Heroes Cup (where it ran second behind Dogar Choice), and the handicapper has now elevated it to an exceptional 9-2. That is a statement of absolute confidence. My favourite is Sea of Class without any hesitation. Wake Up (9-0) at the second highest weight in the field is the natural place — it has won and framed throughout the meeting from the upper weight positions and carries genuine authority at 9-0 in Division V & VI. Dogar Choice (8-12) is my fluke — it won Race 3 of the War Heroes Cup as an upset winner from 7-13 and has now been elevated significantly to 8-12, showing the handicapper's recognition of that performance. Sultan Again at 7-12 as the book's favourite while Sea of Class carries 9-2 is analytically indefensible on a 900m cup race in Division V & VI, regardless of how impressive Sultan Again's recent pace statistics have been.

 

Race 4 · 4:45 PM — Lance Naik Muhammad Mahfuz Shaheed Nishan-e-Haider Cup
Class VII Division III & IV — 900m

Field of 9 (+ 2 Div III)

#	Horse	Weight
1	Bellatrix 4	9-0
2	Falco 9	8-12
3	Shair-e-Niaz Baig 10	8-12
4	Mister Sardar 5	8-10
5	Emerging Star 2	8-10
6	Safe Bet 9	8-4
7	Be A Man 8	8-2
8	Paddington 3	7-12
9	Raja The Great 7	7-10
+2	Div III supplementaries	—

Book Fav: Bellatrix | Book Place: Falco | Book Fluke: Be A Man

My Fav: Bellatrix | My Place: Falco | My Fluke: Shair-e-Niaz Baig

My reasoning: Full agreement with the book on favourite and place — but divergence on the fluke. Bellatrix (9-0) carries the outright top weight and has been one of the most consistent frame finishers of the entire LRC season — winning Race 4 on the August Cup day and placing in multiple War Heroes Cup and Summer Meeting races. The handicapper's elevation to 9-0 in Division III & IV is the strongest possible statement of class dominance. My favourite is Bellatrix with complete conviction. Falco (8-12) at second weight alongside Shair-e-Niaz Baig is the natural place — the book agrees and Falco's track record across the season supports a frame position. The divergence is in the fluke: the book selects Be A Man (8-2) while I prefer Shair-e-Niaz Baig (8-12). Shair-e-Niaz Baig carries the same weight as Falco at 8-12 — jointly second in the field — and ran third in Race 6 of the War Heroes Cup. Be A Man (8-2) concedes a full 12 pounds to Bellatrix over 900m despite its impressive War Heroes Cup third place. Shair-e-Niaz Baig's joint second weight position makes it the more structurally credible fluke over the shorter 900m trip.

 

Race 5 · 5:20 PM — Sawar Muhammad Hussain Shaheed Nishan-e-Haider Cup
Class VII Division I & II — 1000m

Field of 7 (+ 2 supplementaries)

#	Horse	Weight
1	Pakiza 5	9-0
2	Rafah 7	8-8
3	Classic Mystery 6	8-0
4	Construct Craft 3	8-0
5	Imperius 4	8-0
6	First Love 8	7-12
7	Zohan The Thunder 2	7-12
+2	Supplementaries	—

Book Fav: Rafah | Book Place: Classic Mystery | Book Fluke: Construct Craft

My Fav: Pakiza | My Place: Rafah | My Fluke: Classic Mystery

My reasoning: The most analytically loaded race of the card and the sharpest divergence from the book. Pakiza (9-0) carries the outright top weight — 6 pounds ahead of Rafah and 14 pounds clear of the three-way cluster at 8-0. The book makes Rafah (8-8) the favourite while demoting Pakiza entirely — a form-over-weight call in Division I & II over 1000m. Pakiza has been one of the three or four most important horses in the entire LRC meeting cycle: it won the Independence Day Cup on Day 8 of the Summer Meeting, ran in the August Cup, and competed in the War Heroes Cup's Aziz Bhatti race. The handicapper's sustained 9-0 allocation across Division I & II is an unwavering confidence signal. On 1000m — where the Summer Meeting data consistently shows weight authority matters most — Pakiza is my favourite with complete conviction. Rafah (8-8) is my place — the book's confidence in it is form-justified and at second highest weight it is the natural frame selection. Classic Mystery (8-0) is my fluke — it has won two cup races at this meeting including the August Cup and the Jashn-e-Azadi Cup, both from positions where it was designated a long shot. The book rightly includes it in the selection frame. Construct Craft (8-0) as the book's fluke shares the same weight with Classic Mystery and has also won cup races this season — both are legitimate frame threats. Classic Mystery's cup-race winning record gives it the narrower edge in my fluke slot.