Leaning on recent form, weight changes

 

By Asher Butt

 

The 11th Day: Lahore Winter Meeting 2026-2027
Sunday, 15th November 2026 | 7 Races | First Race 12:30 PM
Races 1, 2 over 1000m | Races 3, 4, 7 over 1100m | Race 5 over 1400m | Race 6 over 1300m

After assessing the recent races, one has leaned on recent form and on weight changes this time, because top weight alone has not been winning the meetings.

 

Race 1 · 12:30 PM: Class VII Division VII (Maiden), 1000m

Field of 13

#	Horse	Weight
1	Cheezious 3	9-0
2	Daada Jan 10	9-0
3	Lucky Badshah 8	9-0
4	Naughty Cloud 9	8-11
5	Badal 12	8-10
6	Miss Coca Cola 4	8-9
7	Jutt Gee 5	8-8
8	Tiger 2	8-8
9	Tehran Shan 7	8-7
10	Biscuit 6	8-6
11	Raees Sahib 13	7-10
12	Hassan Star 11	7-10
13	Good Boy 14	7-10

Book Fav: Tiger | Book Place: Miss Coca Cola | Book Fluke: Jutt Gee

My Fav: Tiger | My Place: Tehran Shan | My Fluke: Cheezious

My reasoning: Thirteen runners and three joint top weights make this the least predictable race of the day. Tiger ran second on Day 9 at 8-13 and is down 5 pounds to 8-8, so I agree with the book. Tehran Shan was third on Day 10 and is up only 3 pounds, which makes it my place. Cheezious, Daada Jan and Lucky Badshah are three horses at 9-0 that I have no form on, so my fluke of Cheezious is a tiebreak and nothing more. Badal was at 9-0 and unplaced on Day 10, and is now down to 8-10. Jutt Gee was the book's favourite on Day 10 and missed the frame.

 

Race 2 · 1:05 PM: Class VII Division VII, 1000m

Field of 6

#	Horse	Weight
1	Mid Night Grace 6	9-2
2	Zaman Sahib 3	8-10
3	Sher Dil 4	8-6
4	Sosig Go 7	7-12
5	Silent Melody 2	7-12
6	Pocket Power 5	7-10

Book Fav: Mid Night Grace | Book Place: Zaman Sahib | Book Fluke: Sher Dil

My Fav: Mid Night Grace | My Place: Zaman Sahib | My Fluke: Silent Melody

My reasoning: Mid Night Grace ran second on Day 10 at 7-8 and has been raised 22 pounds to 9-2. The handicapper clearly rates it, but Wake Up's 20-pound rise to 9-2 on Day 10 ended in third. In a field of six with the next-best 4 pounds lighter, I still make it the favourite, but without much conviction. Zaman Sahib is second in the weights and was second on Day 6. Silent Melody was third on Day 9 and is down 12 pounds to 7-12, a drop that looks like a chance for a frame finish. I prefer it to Sher Dil as the fluke.

 

Race 3 · 1:40 PM: Class VII Division V & VI, 1100m

Field of 8

#	Horse	Weight
1	Talent Again 6	9-0
2	Raja The Great 4	8-10
3	Thunder Pride 3	8-10
4	Wake Up 7	8-2
5	Piyari 9	8-0
6	Naveed-e-Sahar 5	7-12
7	Abdullah Pasrur 2	7-10
8	True Promise 8	7-10

Book Fav: Talent Again | Book Place: Raja The Great | Book Fluke: Thunder Pride

My Fav: Thunder Pride | My Place: Talent Again | My Fluke: Wake Up

My reasoning: Thunder Pride won on Day 10 at 8-10 and carries the same weight again, with no penalty for winning. Talent Again won on Day 8 at 8-0 and is up 16 pounds to 9-0, the same kind of jump that has hurt other horses this meeting. I put it second. Raja The Great is 8-10, same as Thunder Pride, but has not shown the recent form. Wake Up was third on Day 10 at 9-2 and has now dropped 14 pounds to 8-2, which makes it my fluke.

 

Race 4 · 2:15 PM: Makkah Joint Defence Cup, Class VII Division II (Maiden), 1100m

Field of 11

#	Horse	Weight
1	Abra Ka Dabra 3	8-8
2	Black Jet 9	8-8
3	Khokhar Palace 4	8-8
4	Red Jet 12	8-8
5	Good Day 5	8-6
6	Kitten's Boy 8	8-6
7	Mera Sultan 11	8-6
8	Son of Gujrat 10	8-6
9	Bin Sardar 6	8-4
10	Pakistani Queen 7	8-3
11	She Is Back 2	8-3

Book: No declared favourite for this maiden

My Fav: Pakistani Queen | My Place: Good Day | My Fluke: Abra Ka Dabra

My reasoning: The weights are almost level, so form is the only guide. Pakistani Queen has finished third in both the Nonchal Cup and the Neelam Cup, and it is carrying the lightest weight of the group at 8-3. Good Day ran in the Neelam Cup and sits at 8-6, a little ahead of the other Neelam runners (Bin Sardar, Son of Gujrat, She Is Back) who did not frame. Abra Ka Dabra is a joint top weight at 8-8, and with four horses on that weight I picked it from the group as an outside chance. I'd treat this as an open race.

 

Race 5 · 2:50 PM: The November Cup, 3-Year-Old Term Race, 1400m

Field of 9

#	Horse	Weight
1	Green Card 4	9-4
2	Sikandar 6	9-4
3	Tomorrowland 7	9-4
4	Queen of Pharaoh 9	9-1
5	Mayya 2	8-10
6	Ameera 10	8-7
7	Chasing Eden 5	8-7
8	Chaman 8	8-4
9	Bella Two 3	8-1

Book Fav: Chasing Eden | Book Place: Tomorrowland | Book Fluke: Bella Two

My Fav: Chasing Eden | My Place: Tomorrowland | My Fluke: Sikandar

My reasoning: Chasing Eden finished second to Tomorrowland in the PHL Cup over 1400m on Day 8. It carried 8-7 then and carries 8-7 now, while Tomorrowland has gone from 9-2 to 9-4. The gap between them has widened by 2 pounds and it was a narrow finish, so I agree with the book. Tomorrowland remains a serious chance as the winner of that race. Sikandar won the Class VI on Day 10 and has been raised 18 pounds to 9-4, so I give it a frame chance as my fluke and am wary of such a big rise. Bella Two ran second on Day 8 at 8-12, so it is a reasonable book fluke, but I prefer Sikandar's form.

 

Race 6 · 3:25 PM: Class VII Division I & II, 1300m

Field of 10 (+ 3 supplementaries)

#	Horse	Weight
1	Ghuroor 2	8-12
2	Moni Prince 10	8-11
3	Eden Queen 8 (subject to stewards' approval)	8-8
4	Moni Ki Chahat 6	8-7
5	Bunty Bella 11	8-7
6	Adaab 7	8-4
7	Murshad 9	8-3
8	Peelo Wains 4	8-3
9	Pakistani Champion 5	8-1
10	Farrier Star 3	8-0

Book Fav: Pakistani Champion | Book Place: Peelo Wains | Book Fluke: Eden Queen

My Fav: Peelo Wains | My Place: Pakistani Champion | My Fluke: Moni Prince

My reasoning: Peelo Wains won on Day 9 at 8-6 and is down 3 pounds to 8-3, which makes it my favourite. Pakistani Champion finished second on Day 10 and has been raised from 7-10 to 8-1, so I put it second, not first. Moni Prince finished second on Day 9 and remains close to the top of the weights. Eden Queen is a book fluke, but it was only third on Day 9 and has been raised 8 pounds, and it runs subject to stewards' approval. Three supplementaries could change the race at declaration time.

 

Race 7 · 4:00 PM: Class VII Division IV, 1100m

Field of 6 (+ 6 supplementaries)

#	Horse	Weight
1	Dar Princess 3	8-10
2	Mister Sardar 7	8-10
3	Shibra 4	8-6
4	Haseeb Thunder 6	8-2
5	Gondal Baba 5	8-2
6	Singhar 2	8-2

Book Fav: Haseeb Thunder | Book Place: Mister Sardar | Book Fluke: Gondal Baba

My Fav: Haseeb Thunder | My Place: Singhar | My Fluke: Dar Prince (see note)

My reasoning: Haseeb Thunder won on Day 5 at 7-8 and was second on Day 7, and it now carries 8-2, so I agree with the book. Singhar finished third on Day 9 and shares the same 8-2, which makes it my place. Dar Princess is a joint top weight at 8-10, and I pick it as the fluke. Mister Sardar shares that weight and is the book's place, so it could easily frame. With six supplementaries still to come, this card may change.

Pakistan’s international cricket map keeps shrinking

 

From 16 cities to two: Smog forces Lahore Test to Rawalpindi

 

By Asher Butt

Cricket in Pakistan has never been just a sport. It has been a unifying cultural thread, binding every province, city and ethnicity together. Yet the geography of the game in the country tells a stark and worrying story. From a sprawling national footprint of more than 16 international venues, Pakistan’s top-level cricket has now shrunk into a tight, repetitive cycle centred largely on Lahore and Karachi with a slightest addition of Multan.

The latest reminder came on November 10, when the Pakistan Cricket Board confirmed that the second Test between Pakistan and Sri Lanka, originally scheduled in Lahore from November 17 to 21, had been relocated to Rawalpindi due to prevailing weather conditions.

A PCB spokesperson said the decision was taken in view of increasing smog levels in Lahore. The match will now be played at the Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium on the same dates, meaning both Tests of the series will be staged at one venue.

It was not an isolated incident. Over the years, venues have lost international matches for a combination of reasons — security concerns, failure to meet ICC-prescribed facilities, monsoon rains, extreme heat and humidity, overnight dew, shorter winter days, and now smog. Each factor has chipped away at the map, leaving fewer and fewer cities in the international loop.

At a time, sporting venues are shrinking, Pakistan will be providing financial assistance to build an international-standard cricket stadium in Gulhifalhu, Maldives, as part of efforts to strengthen sports cooperation between the two countries.

However, there was a time when non-metropolitan centres and regional hubs were regular stops for touring sides. Hosting an international match brought infrastructural investment, a localized economic boost and lifetime memories for regional fans.

In Punjab, major Tests and One-Day Internationals were routinely hosted at Sheikhupura Stadium, Jinnah Stadium in Sialkot, Jinnah Stadium in Gujranwala, Bahawal Stadium in Bahawalpur, Iqbal Stadium in Faisalabad, as well as grounds in Sargodha and Zafar Ali Stadium in Sahiwal.

Beyond Karachi, Sindh had its own proud centre in Hyderabad. The Niaz Stadium became part of folklore after Jalal-ud-Din claimed the first-ever ODI hat-trick there in 1982, bringing high-profile cricket directly to the fans of interior Sindh.

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan were equally part of the story. Peshawar’s Arbab Niaz Stadium, also known as Qayyum Stadium (now an Imran Khan Stadium), and Quetta’s Bugti Stadium and Ayub National Stadium provided passion-filled arenas where regional youth could watch international stars live, bridging national integration through sport.

But when international cricket gradually returned to Pakistan, hosting duties were initially shared between four main venues — Lahore, Karachi, Rawalpindi and Multan. Even that was a sharp contraction from the golden era.

In recent years, however, the pattern has consolidated further. Marquee series, high-profile tours and Pakistan Super League playoff legs have increasingly turned Gaddafi Stadium in Lahore and National Bank Stadium in Karachi into the heavy default choices, with Rawalpindi and Multan getting periodic inclusion rather than regular rotation.

The contrast is striking. The 1970s to 2000s era featured Lahore, Karachi, Rawalpindi, Peshawar, Quetta, Multan, Faisalabad, Sialkot, Gujranwala, Sheikhupura, Hyderabad, Bahawalpur, Sargodha and Sahiwal — more than 16 cities. The early resurgence era narrowed that to four. The current pattern is predominantly Lahore and Karachi.

The cost of centralization or hyper-centralisation of international cricket has its consequences on the game that go far beyond the fixture list.

First, it alienates regional youth. Young fans in Peshawar, Quetta, Sialkot or Hyderabad are denied the opportunity to experience live international cricket in their home cities, creating a disconnect between grassroots talent and the top tier of the sport.

Second, it accelerates the decay of regional infrastructure. Without the incentive of international fixtures, historic grounds outside the main hubs suffer from reduced maintenance budgets and slow modernisation. A stadium that does not host international cricket struggles to justify investment.

Third, it weakens national inclusivity. Broadening the venue map ensures that international cricket acts as a shared national celebration rather than an exclusive privilege reserved for two or three major urban centres.

To restore Pakistan’s full cricketing footprint, the PCB and provincial sports authorities will need a structured, multi-city venue roadmap rather than ad-hoc decisions.

The most urgent step is to accelerate international-standard renovations at Arbab Niaz Stadium in Peshawar and to modernise Bugti Stadium in Quetta, both of which have waited years for a return to the international calendar.

The PSL footprint also needs to be broadened. Instead of centralising tournament legs, fixtures should be expanded to feature home venues in Faisalabad, Peshawar and Quetta, giving those cities a stake in the country’s biggest cricket product.

Equally important is logistics. The PCB will have to work alongside local administrations in cities like Sialkot, Faisalabad and Hyderabad to establish safe, streamlined hoteling and transit corridors capable of accommodating international squads, broadcast crews and officials.

For now, Rawalpindi will host both Tests against Sri Lanka. But the smog-driven relocation from Lahore is a reminder that even the two-city model is fragile. If Pakistan wants cricket to belong to the whole country again, the map will have to grow — not keep shrinking.

Hit none but finish in LRC frame

 

By Asher Butt and Abid Sultan

The book hit two favourites from six (Thunder Pride and Coach House Pari). I hit none, though several of my selections finished in the frame. One race went to an upset, two to place horses, and two as well to a fluke.

Book favs hit 2 / 6

My favs hit 0 / 6

Upset winner R1

Place winners 3

Fluke winner R5

Race-by-race results

Race	1st	2nd	3rd	Book fav	My fav
R1 · 1:00 Maiden 1000m	1JK One	2Chuppa Rustam	3Tehran Shan	Jutt Gee out	Chuppa Rustam 2nd
R2 · 1:35 Div VI&VII 1000m	1Thunder Pride	2Mid Night Grace	3Wake Up	Thunder Pride won	Wake Up 3rd
R3 · 2:10 Punjab Cup 1200m	1Samara	2Makhmoor	3Counter Strike	Makhmoor 2nd	Kamal out
R4 · 2:45 Div I&II 1200m	1First Love	2Pakistani Champion	3Farrier Star	Dubai's Dream out	Moni Prince out
R5 · 3:20 Class VI 1300m	1Sikandar	2Ameera	3Ceaser	Ceaser 3rd	Ceaser 3rd
R6 · 3:55 Div III-V 1000m	1Coach House Pari	2Ustrana Love	3Safe Bet	Coach House Pari won	Safe Bet 3rd

Result type by race

R1 Upset

R2 Fav won

R3 Place won

R4 Place won

R5 Fluke won

R6 Fav won

Race by race:

Race 1, Maiden (1000m): JK One won and nobody had selected it. In my selections, Chuppa Rustam (one of my joint top weights) was second, and Tehran Shan (the book’s fluke and mine) was third. The book’s favourite Jutt Gee and place Raees Sahib were unplaced. The maiden division has now produced an unexpected winner several times this meeting. Top weight gave me the runner-up, but not the winner.

Race 2, Division VI & VII (1000m): Thunder Pride won as the book’s favourite. My plan was to rank it third, as my fluke, and that was the wrong call. Mid Night Grace ran a surprise second and Wake Up, my favourite and the book’s place, was third. Thunder Pride dropped to 8-10 after a third at 9-0 and won comfortably. It’s a good reminder that I had it right on form and wrong on rank.

Race 3, Punjab Cup (1200m): Samara, the book’s place, won under Abdullah Amir. Makhmoor, the book’s favourite, was second and Counter Strike, my fluke, third. I had Samara in neither of my top three, and I questioned the book’s choice of it. That was my miss. Kamal, my favourite, and Sun Classique, my place, did not frame. Only Counter Strike landed for me.

Race 4, Division I & II (1200m): First Love won, as the book’s place and mine. The report calls it “Falling for First Love”, which I read as First Love. Pakistani Champion (second) and Farrier Star (third) were not among the horses I selected. Neither the book’s favourite Dubai’s Dream nor my favourite Moni Prince was in the frame. This was my best selection of the card.

Race 5, Class VI (1300m): Sikandar won as the book’s fluke and mine. Ameera, my place, was second and Ceaser, the agreed favourite, third. All three of my picks finished in the frame, though the order was wrong. That makes it my cleanest race of the day for frame coverage. Ceaser has now finished second or third at every recent Class VI start without winning. In the report it was the favourite, but in practice it behaves as a frame horse, not a winning horse.

Race 6, Division III, IV & V (1000m): Coach House Pari won as the book’s favourite. Ustrana Love was a surprise second and Safe Bet, my favourite, third. I had Coach House Pari second in my own order. The book had it first and was right. Safe Bet ran third for the third consecutive start despite its top weight.

Day 10 summary: I picked a favourite in each race and none of them won. Wake Up, Ceaser and Safe Bet all finished third, and Chuppa Rustam second. That has been the pattern all meeting: my top picks reach the frame but do not win. The book’s two wins came from horses whose weights had fallen sharply from earlier races, Thunder Pride and Coach House Pari. Where a horse has dropped 8 pounds or more from a recent run, as both of these had, I should weight that more heavily next time and treat top weight alone as a weaker signal.