Hit none but finish in LRC frame

 

By Asher Butt and Abid Sultan

The book hit two favourites from six (Thunder Pride and Coach House Pari). I hit none, though several of my selections finished in the frame. One race went to an upset, two to place horses, and two as well to a fluke.

Book favs hit 2 / 6

My favs hit 0 / 6

Upset winner R1

Place winners 3

Fluke winner R5

Race-by-race results

Race	1st	2nd	3rd	Book fav	My fav
R1 · 1:00 Maiden 1000m	1JK One	2Chuppa Rustam	3Tehran Shan	Jutt Gee out	Chuppa Rustam 2nd
R2 · 1:35 Div VI&VII 1000m	1Thunder Pride	2Mid Night Grace	3Wake Up	Thunder Pride won	Wake Up 3rd
R3 · 2:10 Punjab Cup 1200m	1Samara	2Makhmoor	3Counter Strike	Makhmoor 2nd	Kamal out
R4 · 2:45 Div I&II 1200m	1First Love	2Pakistani Champion	3Farrier Star	Dubai's Dream out	Moni Prince out
R5 · 3:20 Class VI 1300m	1Sikandar	2Ameera	3Ceaser	Ceaser 3rd	Ceaser 3rd
R6 · 3:55 Div III-V 1000m	1Coach House Pari	2Ustrana Love	3Safe Bet	Coach House Pari won	Safe Bet 3rd

Result type by race

R1 Upset

R2 Fav won

R3 Place won

R4 Place won

R5 Fluke won

R6 Fav won

Race by race:

Race 1, Maiden (1000m): JK One won and nobody had selected it. In my selections, Chuppa Rustam (one of my joint top weights) was second, and Tehran Shan (the book’s fluke and mine) was third. The book’s favourite Jutt Gee and place Raees Sahib were unplaced. The maiden division has now produced an unexpected winner several times this meeting. Top weight gave me the runner-up, but not the winner.

Race 2, Division VI & VII (1000m): Thunder Pride won as the book’s favourite. My plan was to rank it third, as my fluke, and that was the wrong call. Mid Night Grace ran a surprise second and Wake Up, my favourite and the book’s place, was third. Thunder Pride dropped to 8-10 after a third at 9-0 and won comfortably. It’s a good reminder that I had it right on form and wrong on rank.

Race 3, Punjab Cup (1200m): Samara, the book’s place, won under Abdullah Amir. Makhmoor, the book’s favourite, was second and Counter Strike, my fluke, third. I had Samara in neither of my top three, and I questioned the book’s choice of it. That was my miss. Kamal, my favourite, and Sun Classique, my place, did not frame. Only Counter Strike landed for me.

Race 4, Division I & II (1200m): First Love won, as the book’s place and mine. The report calls it “Falling for First Love”, which I read as First Love. Pakistani Champion (second) and Farrier Star (third) were not among the horses I selected. Neither the book’s favourite Dubai’s Dream nor my favourite Moni Prince was in the frame. This was my best selection of the card.

Race 5, Class VI (1300m): Sikandar won as the book’s fluke and mine. Ameera, my place, was second and Ceaser, the agreed favourite, third. All three of my picks finished in the frame, though the order was wrong. That makes it my cleanest race of the day for frame coverage. Ceaser has now finished second or third at every recent Class VI start without winning. In the report it was the favourite, but in practice it behaves as a frame horse, not a winning horse.

Race 6, Division III, IV & V (1000m): Coach House Pari won as the book’s favourite. Ustrana Love was a surprise second and Safe Bet, my favourite, third. I had Coach House Pari second in my own order. The book had it first and was right. Safe Bet ran third for the third consecutive start despite its top weight.

Day 10 summary: I picked a favourite in each race and none of them won. Wake Up, Ceaser and Safe Bet all finished third, and Chuppa Rustam second. That has been the pattern all meeting: my top picks reach the frame but do not win. The book’s two wins came from horses whose weights had fallen sharply from earlier races, Thunder Pride and Coach House Pari. Where a horse has dropped 8 pounds or more from a recent run, as both of these had, I should weight that more heavily next time and treat top weight alone as a weaker signal.

Naveed Sh on mutations, smart pairing, dull fallows & economics of aviculture

 

By Asher Butt

Renowned aviculturist Naveed Sheikh outlines a clear roadmap for lovebird breeders in Pakistan – moving away from quantity-based breeding towards smart, targeted mutation working, with special focus on Dull Fallows, Aqua Opalines and market-driven pairing strategies.

In a detailed discussion, Sheikh began by showcasing his high-end stock, including a Yellow Face Dull Fallow (Pale Fallow / Palid Fallow) fisher pairing with a possible Blue line, around 7 months old. He highlighted strong bloodlines and high commercial valuation, noting that premium pairs of this quality now command prices upwards of Rs 300,000 to Rs 500,000 in the local market.

On revival of pale fallows, he while recalling a discussion with Umair Chauhan in Peshawar, Sheikh explained how Pale Fallow lines were once struggling with survival rates. The breakthrough came when breeders paired Green into Green and Green into Blue, which revitalized the lines and eventually converted them into the modern Dull Fallows that dominate today’s high-end market.

On short-sighted breeding, Sheikh strongly criticised the current trend of chasing quick money by pairing mismatched mutations – for example, a Yellow Face Opaline cock with a Parblue Opaline Dull Fallow hen. Such pairings, he said, only produce generic split birds rather than clean, high-value visual stock.

True working birds, according to Sheikh, require strict line-breeding, such as Green Opaline split B1, B2, split Dull Fallow, split Yellow Face – birds that carry the genetics to produce visual mutations consistently.

 

1. High-End Commercial Strategy – For Investors & Advanced Breeders

The Pairing:

- Cock: B2 Aqua Opaline Dull Fallow

- Hen: Yellow Face Opaline split Blue (possible split Dull Fallow)

 

Market Valuation:

- B2 Aqua Opaline Dull Fallow cock alone: Rs 200,000 to Rs 250,000 in Pakistan, and double in international markets. Birds exported to Bangladesh have fetched Rs 500,000 to Rs 600,000 after risk and freight.

- Yellow Face Opaline split Blue / Dull Fallow hen: Rs 100,000 to Rs 150,000

- Total pair value: Rs 300,000 to Rs 500,000

 

Expected Offspring:

Green Opaline (split Yellow Face, split Dull Fallow, possible split Aqua), Blue Opaline and Aqua Opaline variants. Resulting Aqua Opaline split Yellow Face / Dull Fallow chicks can sell for Rs 200,000 to Rs 500,000 each next season.

 

2. Smart-Working Strategy – For Small-Scale & Budget Breeders

 

The Pairing:

- Cock: Parblue Opaline (possible split Dull Fallow, sourced from confirmed split siblings where visual Dull Fallows appeared)

- Hen: B2 Aqua Opaline (possible split Dull Fallow)

 

Cost:

- Parblue Opaline possible split Dull Fallow chick: ~Rs 5,000

- B2 Aqua Opaline possible split Dull Fallow bird: Rs 15,000 to Rs 20,000

- Total investment: Rs 20,000 to Rs 25,000

 

Expected Returns:

Even black-eyed baseline chicks like Parblue Opaline, B1 Aqua Opaline and B2 Aqua Opaline easily fetch Rs 10,000 each. If the pairing clicks, high-value birds like Parblue Opaline Dull Fallow or B2 Aqua Opaline Dull Fallow can emerge, valued at Rs 100,000 to Rs 200,000+ each.

 

Industry Outlook

Sheikh emphasized that the era of keeping hundreds of pairs of simple Creminos, Albinos, Green Fishers or basic Parblue Opalines is over. The market now rewards smart working, targeted mutation breeding and high-end trends like Dull Fallows.

With commercial importers currently shifting focus to larger species like Macaws and Cockatoos, and lovebirds being cheaper locally than internationally, Pakistani breeders have a strong window for export and domestic value-creation. Sheikh advised breeders to learn from past mistakes, focus on long-term quality, and adapt to modern avian trends.

 

 

 

نوید شیخ کی لَو برڈ میوٹیشنز اور ایوی کلچر کی نئی معیشت

 

عا شر بٹ

 

معروف ایوی کلچرسٹ نوید شیخ نے اپنی ویڈیو گفتگو میں پاکستان کے لَو برڈ بریڈرز کے لیے ایک واضح روڈ میپ پیش کیا ہے – تعداد پر مبنی بریڈنگ سے ہٹ کر اسمارٹ، ٹارگٹڈ میوٹیشن ورکنگ کی طرف جانا، جس میں خاص توجہ ڈل فیلو، ایکوا اوپلائن اور مارکیٹ کے مطابق پیئرنگ اسٹریٹجی پر دی گئی ہے۔

 

شیخ نے اپنی اعلیٰ نسل کے اسٹاک کا تعارف کراتے ہوئے ییلو فیس ڈل فیلو (پیل فیلو / پیلڈ فیلو) فشر پیئر کا ذکر کیا، جو ممکنہ بلیو لائن کے ساتھ ہے اور تقریباً 7 ماہ کے چکس پر مشتمل ہے۔ انہوں نے مضبوط بلڈ لائنز اور اعلیٰ کمرشل ویلیو پر زور دیتے ہوئے بتایا کہ اس معیار کے پریمیم پیئرز کی قیمت اب مقامی مارکیٹ میں 3 لاکھ سے 5 لاکھ روپے سے زیادہ ہے۔

 

پیل فیلو کی بحالی

 

پشاور میں عمیر چوہان کے ساتھ اپنی گفتگو کو یاد کرتے ہوئے شیخ نے بتایا کہ پیل فیلو لائنز کو کبھی سروائیول ریٹ کے مسائل کا سامنا تھا۔ اس کا حل اس وقت نکلا جب بریڈرز نے گرین انٹو گرین اور گرین انٹو بلیو کی پیئرنگ کی، جس نے لائنز کو دوبارہ زندہ کر دیا اور بالآخر انہیں آج کے جدید ڈل فیلوز میں تبدیل کر دیا جو اب ہائی اینڈ مارکیٹ پر چھائے ہوئے ہیں۔

 

جلد بازی والی بریڈنگ پر تنقید

 

شیخ نے جلد پیسہ کمانے کے چکر میں غلط میوٹیشنز کی پیئرنگ کے رجحان پر سخت تنقید کی – مثال کے طور پر ییلو فیس اوپلائن کاک کو پاربلیو اوپلائن ڈل فیلو ہین کے ساتھ لگانا۔ ان کے مطابق ایسی پیئرنگ سے صرف عام اسپلٹ برڈز نکلتے ہیں، نہ کہ صاف اور اعلیٰ قیمت والے ویژول برڈز۔

 

شیخ کے مطابق اصل ورکنگ برڈز کے لیے سخت لائن بریڈنگ ضروری ہے، جیسے گرین اوپلائن اسپلٹ B1، B2، اسپلٹ ڈل فیلو، اسپلٹ ییلو فیس – ایسے برڈز جو مستقل طور پر ویژول میوٹیشنز پیدا کرنے کی جینیٹکس رکھتے ہیں۔

 

1۔ ہائی اینڈ کمرشل اسٹریٹجی – انویسٹرز اور ایڈوانسڈ بریڈرز کے لیے

 

پیئرنگ:

- کاک: B2 ایکوا اوپلائن ڈل فیلو

- ہین: ییلو فیس اوپلائن اسپلٹ بلیو (ممکنہ اسپلٹ ڈل فیلو)

 

مارکیٹ ویلیو:

- B2 ایکوا اوپلائن ڈل فیلو کاک اکیلا: پاکستان میں 2 لاکھ سے 2 لاکھ 50 ہزار روپے، اور انٹرنیشنل مارکیٹ میں دگنا۔ بنگلہ دیش ایکسپورٹ ہونے والے برڈز رسک اور فریٹ کے بعد 5 لاکھ سے 6 لاکھ روپے تک گئے۔

- ییلو فیس اوپلائن اسپلٹ بلیو / ڈل فیلو ہین: 1 لاکھ سے 1 لاکھ 50 ہزار روپے

- کل پیئر ویلیو: 3 لاکھ سے 5 لاکھ روپے

 

متوقع چکس:

گرین اوپلائن (اسپلٹ ییلو فیس، اسپلٹ ڈل فیلو، ممکنہ اسپلٹ ایکوا)، بلیو اوپلائن اور ایکوا اوپلائن۔ اگلے سیزن میں نکلنے والے ایکوا اوپلائن اسپلٹ ییلو فیس / ڈل فیلو چکس 2 لاکھ سے 5 لاکھ روپے فی چکس تک فروخت ہو سکتے ہیں۔

 

2۔ اسمارٹ ورکنگ اسٹریٹجی – چھوٹے اور بجٹ بریڈرز کے لیے

 

پیئرنگ:

- کاک: پاربلیو اوپلائن (ممکنہ اسپلٹ ڈل فیلو، کنفرمڈ اسپلٹ بہن بھائیوں سے جہاں ویژول ڈل فیلو نکلے ہوں)

- ہین: B2 ایکوا اوپلائن (ممکنہ اسپلٹ ڈل فیلو)

 

لاگت:

- پاربلیو اوپلائن ممکنہ اسپلٹ ڈل فیلو چکس: تقریباً 5,000 روپے

- B2 ایکوا اوپلائن ممکنہ اسپلٹ ڈل فیلو برڈ: 15,000 سے 20,000 روپے

- کل سرمایہ کاری: 20,000 سے 25,000 روپے

 

متوقع منافع:

عام بلیک آئیڈ بیس لائن چکس جیسے پاربلیو اوپلائن، B1 ایکوا اوپلائن اور B2 ایکوا اوپلائن بھی آسانی سے 10,000 روپے فی چکس تک فروخت ہو جاتے ہیں۔ اگر پیئرنگ کلک کر جائے تو پاربلیو اوپلائن ڈل فیلو یا B2 ایکوا اوپلائن ڈل فیلو جیسے ہائی ویلیو برڈز نکل سکتے ہیں، جن کی قیمت 1 لاکھ سے 2 لاکھ روپے سے زیادہ ہوتی ہے۔

 

انڈسٹری کا مستقبل

 

شیخ نے زور دیا کہ سینکڑوں پیئرز پر مشتمل سادہ کریمینو، البینو، گرین فشر یا بنیادی پاربلیو اوپلائن رکھنے کا دور ختم ہو چکا ہے۔ اب مارکیٹ اسمارٹ ورکنگ، ٹارگٹڈ میوٹیشن بریڈنگ اور ڈل فیلو جیسے ہائی اینڈ ٹرینڈز کو انعام دیتی ہے۔

 

چونکہ کمرشل امپورٹرز اس وقت بڑی نسل جیسے مکاؤ اور کاکاٹو کی طرف جا رہے ہیں اور لَو برڈز مقامی طور پر انٹرنیشنل مارکیٹ سے سستے ہیں، پاکستانی بریڈرز کے پاس ایکسپورٹ اور ڈومیسٹک ویلیو کری ایشن کے لیے ایک مضبوط موقع ہے۔ شیخ نے بریڈرز کو مشورہ دیا کہ ماضی کی غلطیوں سے سیکھیں، طویل مدتی کوالٹی پر توجہ دیں اور جدید ایویئن ٹرینڈز کے ساتھ خود کو ہم آہنگ کریں۔

Weighing race six's pack against weight changes

 

By Asher Butt

10th Day: Lahore Winter Meeting 2026-2027
Sunday, 8th November 2026 | 6 Races | First Race 1:00 PM
Races 1, 2, 6 over 1000m | Races 3, 4 over 1200m | Race 5 over 1300m

Top weights have won rarely this Winter Meeting, so I have leaned harder on each horse's recent finish than on weight alone.

Race 1 · 1:00 PM: Class VII Division VII (Maiden), 1000m

Field of 10

	Horse	Weight
1	Badal 9	9-0
2	Chuppa Rustam 10	9-0
3	JK One 7	8-10
4	Jutt Gee 5	8-10
5	Biscuit 6	8-10
6	The River Run 3	8-7
7	Tehran Shan 4	8-4
8	Hassan Star 8	7-10
9	Raees Sahib 2	7-10
10	Chahal King 11	7-10

Book Fav: Jutt Gee | Book Place: Raees Sahib | Book Fluke: Tehran Shan

My Fav: Badal / Chuppa Rustam (joint top) | My Place: Jutt Gee | My Fluke: Tehran Shan

My reasoning: Two horses share the 9-0 ceiling, 2 pounds clear of a three-way cluster at 8-10. In a maiden with little form to go on, the handicapper's equal top allocation is the best signal available, so I take the pair. Jutt Gee is the book's favourite and the best of the 8-10 group, which makes it my place. Tehran Shan (8-4) is the one selection we share. Raees Sahib (7-10) concedes 20 pounds to the top weights over 1000m, which is a lot to give away. Maidens are the least reliable races on the card, so hold this one loosely.

 

Race 2 · 1:35 PM: Class VII Division VI & VII, 1000m

Field of 13

	Horse	Weight
1	Wake Up 9	9-2
2	Piyari 8	8-12
3	Thunder Pride 2	8-10
4	Roxy 3	8-10
5	Messi 5	8-6
6	Dani Princess 11	8-2
7	Abdullah Pasrur 14	7-12
8	Zaman Sahib 10	7-10
9	Sher Dil 6	7-10
10	Bella Nova 7	7-8
11	True Promise 13	7-8
12	Mid Night Grace 12	7-8
13	Pocket Power 4	7-8

Book Fav: Thunder Pride | Book Place: Wake Up | Book Fluke: Piyari

My Fav: Wake Up | My Place: Piyari | My Fluke: Thunder Pride

My reasoning: The book and I pick the same three horses and order them differently. Wake Up ran second on Day 8 at 7-10 and now carries 9-2, a rise of 20 pounds. That shows the handicapper rates it, but it is also the biggest risk in the race. Piyari (8-12) sits next in the weights. Thunder Pride dropped to 8-10 after finishing third at 9-0 on Day 9, and it won on Day 6. I would not argue with anyone who backs it as the favourite. With 13 runners, the bottom cluster at 7-8 could still upset any of the three.

 

Race 3 · 2:10 PM: The Punjab Cup, Class VII Division II & III (Maiden), 1200m

Field of 5 (+ 2 supplementaries)

	Horse	Weight
1	Kamal 3	8-8
2	Sun Classique 4	8-6
3	Makhmoor 5	8-5
4	Samara 6	8-2
5	Counter Strike 2	7-10

Book Fav: Makhmoor | Book Place: Samara | Book Fluke: Kamal

My Fav: Kamal | My Place: Sun Classique | My Fluke: Counter Strike

My reasoning: The weights are tightly bunched, so I follow the weights. Kamal carries the top weight, 3 pounds more than the book's favourite Makhmoor, and I take it over the extra distance. Sun Classique sits second at 8-6. Counter Strike finished third in the October Cup on Day 7 at 7-13 and drops to 7-10 here, which gives it the clearest recent form in the field. Samara carried 9-0 on Day 9 and was unplaced, and it now runs 12 pounds lighter, so its place with the book is a leap of faith. The two supplementaries could reshape this at declaration time.

 

Race 4 · 2:45 PM: Class VII Division I & II, 1200m

Field of 9

	Horse	Weight
1	First Love 5	8-12
2	Moni Prince 7	8-12
3	Ex Gambler (Krc) 10	8-4
4	Falco 2	8-2
5	Imperius 8	8-0
6	Farrier Star 6	8-0
7	Kitten's Boy 9	7-13
8	Pakistani Champion 4	7-10
9	Dulpaw's Dream 3	7-10

Book Fav: Dubai's Dream | Book Place: First Love | Book Fluke: Ex Gambler

My Fav: Moni Prince | My Place: First Love | My Fluke: Falco

My reasoning: The sheet prints "Dulpaw's Dream", which I read as the book's Dubai's Dream and as Dubawi's Dream, winner of Day 8 Race 6 at 8-6. If that is the same horse, it now runs 10 pounds lighter at 7-10 and is a serious book pick. If it is a different horse, disregard that point. Moni Prince and First Love share the top weight. Moni Prince finished second on Day 9 at 8-10 and third on Day 6 over 1100m. First Love won Day 8 over 1300m and has gone up 10 pounds, so I rank it second. Falco ran second on Day 6 in this division and carries 8-2, which makes it my fluke. Ex Gambler (Krc) is an unfamiliar name from Karachi, so I have no local form to judge it on.

 

Race 5 · 3:20 PM: Class VI, 1300m

Field of 5 (+ 4 supplementaries)

	Horse	Weight
1	Ceaser 4	9-0
2	Ameera 2	8-4
3	Sikandar 5	8-2
4	Pakiza 3	8-0
5	Moshi Queen 6	7-12

Book Fav: Ceaser | Book Place: Pakiza | Book Fluke: Sikandar

My Fav: Ceaser | My Place: Ameera | My Fluke: Sikandar

My reasoning: We agree on the favourite. Ceaser has framed in recent Class VI races, second on Day 8 and second on Day 9, and is now 9-0. It is the clear top weight, 8 pounds clear of Sikandar and 5 clear of its nearest rival Ameera. The weakness is that it keeps finishing second without winning, so I trust it to frame more than to win. Ameera is my place at second weight. Sikandar is the book's fluke and mine, and it won on Day 5 under Abdullah Amir. Pakiza, the book's place, ran third on Day 9. The four supplementaries could change the picture.

 

Race 6 · 3:55 PM: Class VII Division III, IV & V, 1000m

Field of 7 (+ supplementaries, Div III)

	Horse	Weight
1	Safe Bet 3	8-12
2	Ustrana Love 4	8-8
3	Dar Princess 7	8-8
4	Haseeb Thunder 6	8-0
5	Emerging Star 2	8-0
6	Singhar 8	7-8
7	Coach House Paris 7	7-8

Book Fav: Coach House Pari | Book Place: Safe Bet | Book Fluke: Emerging Star

My Fav: Safe Bet | My Place: Coach House Pari | My Fluke: Singhar

My reasoning: Safe Bet is the top weight at 8-12 and won on Day 7 over 1000m. It was unplaced on Day 9, though, and its weight has come down 4 pounds from its Day 7 win, so it is not a certainty. Coach House Pari is the book's favourite. It won on Day 7, ran second on Day 9 and now drops about 8 pounds to 7-8. I make it my place. Singhar finished third on Day 9 and also runs at 7-8, which gives it a similar weight advantage. Emerging Star (8-0) is the book's fluke, but I prefer the lighter-weighted Singhar. Coach House Pari or Safe Bet could win, and I would not dismiss either.