Thursday, February 26, 2026

Predictions for LRC 26th day meet

 

Predictions for Lahore Winter Meeting - Sunday, March 1st, 2026 (26th Day)

WEEK 5 PREDICTIONS WITH COMPLETE FIELD DATA


Asher Butt 

Revolutionary Strategy Applied:

  1. 🏆 CHECK AWAIS ANJUM FIRST (100% success, 4/4 wins Week 3-4)
  2. 🌟 Track M Ramzan training (100% success, 2/2 wins Week 4)
  3. 💎 Trust my fluke picks (40-50% success rate - my best category)
  4. Recent placers (Week 4) repeat (Crown Pharoah, Shahan Shah, Sher Khan pattern)
  5. Elite 9-2 in competitive races (Dawood Prince won Week 3)

 

Race-by-Race Predictions

Race 1 - Class VII Division-VI&VII - 900m - 12:00 Noon

Complete Field: Haseeb Thrill 8 (9-0), Zaman Sahib 2 (9-0), Largess 5 (8-10), Small Lead 1 (8-8), Mafnood JR 7 (8-4), Princess 6 (8-3), Malik Choice 10 (7-12), Small Lead 11 (7-12), Majesty 6 (7-10), Goldoy Boy 12 (7-8), American Star 9 (7-8)

Book Predictions:

  • Favourite: Haseeb Thrill
  • Place: Mafnood JR
  • Fluke: Zaman Sahib

My Predictions:

  • Favourite: Mafnood JR (7) - 8-4, Placed 2nd Week 2 R2, consistent placer!
  • Place: Haseeb Thrill (8) - 9-0, Placed 2nd Week 4 R2 (recent form!)
  • Fluke: Largess (5) - 8-10 most experienced in field

Analysis & Reasoning:

  • 🔥 MAFNOOD JR - CONSISTENT PLACER PATTERN!
    • Placed 2nd Week 2 R2 (with Augustus winner)
    • Raced Week 4 R1 (book prediction)
    • Following Crown Pharoah/Shahan Shah pattern: Recent placers win
    • 8-4 record is balanced, proven quality
  • Haseeb Thrill (9-0) - Finally placed 2nd Week 4 R2!
    • Recent form validates unbeaten record
    • But unbeaten still risky (6.7% success historically)
  • Zaman Sahib (9-0) - Failed Week 1 R2, Week 2 R2, multiple attempts
  • Largess (8-10) - Most experienced, dark horse
  • 900m sprint - Tactical racing favors experience

Why I disagree with book:

  • Book has Haseeb Thrill (unbeaten) as favourite
  • I'm betting on Mafnood JR's consistent placer pattern
  • Haseeb Thrill's recent 2nd shows form but still risky
  • Following proven Week 4 pattern: Recent placers win next

Confidence Level: 🟢 MEDIUM-HIGH (Mafnood JR recent placer, pattern works)

 

Race 2 - Class VII Division-V&VI - 1100m - 12:35 PM

Complete Field: Absolutely Not 11 (9-0), Princess Anaya(Krc)10 (8-0), Bodrum 3 (8-6), Black Fire 2 (8-6), Safe Bet 8 (8-5), Zindagi 9 (8-6), Anni Power 4 (8-4), Lucky Macs 5 (8-4), Fayyum 6 (7-12), Meet Prince 7 (8-2), (X Augustus)

Book Predictions:

  • Favourite: Bodrum
  • Place: Safe Bet
  • Fluke: Zindagi

My Predictions:

  • Favourite: Anni Power (4) - 8-4, WON Week 4 R2 as massive upset!
  • Place: Bodrum (3) - 8-6, Placed 2nd Week 4 R6
  • Fluke: Zindagi (9) - 8-6, Placed 3rd Week 4 R6

Analysis & Reasoning:

  • 🏆 ANNI POWER - RECENT WINNER!
    • WON Week 4 R2 as "nowhere among favourites" upset!
    • Trainer M Ramzan (100% success Week 4!)
    • Recent winner pattern: Augustus won back-to-back Week 1-2
    • Only 1 week since win - Fresh, race-fit
  • Bodrum (8-6) - Placed 2nd Week 4 R6, recent form
  • Zindagi (8-6) - Placed 3rd Week 4 R6, book had as place
  • Fayyum (7-12) - WON Week 4 R1! Recent winner too!
    • But won 6 days ago, might be tired
  • Lucky Macs (8-4) - Placed 2nd Week 3 R2 (surprise)
  • Absolutely Not (9-0) - Unbeaten but untested
  • (X Augustus) - Augustus excluded! The back-to-back winner resting?

Why I disagree with book:

  • Book has Bodrum as favourite (recent 2nd, reasonable)
  • I'm betting on Anni Power: Recent winner + M Ramzan trainer
  • M Ramzan trained Anni Power (won R2) and Shahan Shah (won R6) Week 4
  • Zindagi as fluke makes sense (placed last week)

KEY INSIGHT: This race has TWO recent winners (Anni Power Week 4 R2, Fayyum Week 4 R1)!

Confidence Level: 🟢 HIGH (Recent winner + M Ramzan trainer pattern)

 

Race 3 - Class VII Division-III&IV - 1000m - 1:10 PM

Complete Field: Seven Star 4 (9-0), Dawood Prince 2 (8-12), Asif Princess 10 (8-10), Paddington 5 (8-10), Luckvir 3 (8-6), Pakiza 6 (8-6), Red Chilly 7 (8-4), Haseeb Thunder 8 (8-2), Debate Princess11 (7-12), Lex Lugar 9 (7-10)

Book Predictions:

  • Favourite: Dawood Prince
  • Place: Pakiza
  • Fluke: Red Chilly

My Predictions:

  • Favourite: Dawood Prince (2) - 8-12, WON Week 3 R2! Elite record!
  • Place: Pakiza (6) - 8-6, Placed 2nd Week 4 R3
  • Fluke: Paddington (5) - 8-10, WON Week 3 R6!

Analysis & Reasoning:

  • ✅✅✅ FULLY AGREE WITH BOOK ON DAWOOD PRINCE!
  • 🏆 DAWOOD PRINCE - ELITE PROVEN WINNER!
    • 8-12 record (was 9-2 before, now more starts)
    • WON Week 3 R2 dominantly as favourite
    • Elite quality in competitive races
    • This is 1000m competitive, NOT maiden
  • Pakiza (8-6) - Placed 2nd Week 4 R3, recent form!
    • Following consistent placer pattern
  • Red Chilly (8-4) - Declining pattern:
    • Won Week 2 R3, 2nd Week 3 R3, 3rd Week 4 R3
    • 4 CONSECUTIVE WEEKS = FATIGUE!
    • Rested Week 5? Or racing 5th straight week?
  • Paddington (8-10) - WON Week 3 R6! Recent winner!
    • But failed Week 4 R3 when racing again
    • 2 week gap now - rested and dangerous?
  • Lex Lugar (7-10) - Is this Lex LUGER (3-win streak Week 1-2)?

Why I agree with book:

  • Dawood Prince is ELITE and proven
  • Pakiza has recent placing form
  • Red Chilly as fluke (if fatigued, long shot; if rested, value)

CRITICAL: Red Chilly on 5th consecutive week = avoid. If rested, dangerous fluke.

Confidence Level: 🟢 VERY HIGH (Dawood Prince elite + proven + competitive race)

 

Race 4 - Class VII Division-II&III - 1000m - 1:45 PM

Complete Field: Set In Stone 1 (8-10), Golden Heart 5 (8-12), Tez Tareen 7 (8-8), Samore City 2 (8-4), Gul-e-Jalal 6 (8-8), Waqat 5 (8-2), (+2 All)

Book Predictions:

  • Favourite: Golden Heart
  • Place: Waqat
  • Fluke: Set In Stone

My Predictions:

  • Favourite: Waqat (5) - 8-2, Placed 2nd Week 4 R4!
  • Place: Golden Heart (5) - 8-12 most experienced
  • Fluke: Set In Stone (1) - 8-10, quality record

Analysis & Reasoning:

  • 🔥 WAQAT - RECENT PLACER PATTERN!
    • Placed 2nd Week 4 R4 (surprise second)
    • Following Crown Pharoah pattern: Placed Week 3 R5 → Won Week 4 R4
    • Following Shahan Shah pattern: Placed Week 2 R3 → Won Week 4 R6
    • Waqat placed Week 4 R4 → Should win Week 5 R4!
    • Only 8-2 record but recent form matters most
  • Golden Heart (8-12) - Most experienced, veteran
    • Placed 3rd Week 3 R4, Week 4 R8
    • Consistent but not winning
  • Set In Stone (8-10) - Strong record, could upset
  • Gul-e-Jalal (8-8) - Balanced record
  • (+2 All) - Larger field = more chaos

Why I disagree with book:

  • Book has Golden Heart as favourite (experience, reasonable)
  • Book has Waqat as place (recognizes recent form)
  • I'm elevating Waqat to favourite: Recent placer pattern too strong
  • 3 consecutive successful recent placers: Crown Pharoah, Shahan Shah, Sher Khan

Confidence Level: 🟢 HIGH (Recent placer pattern has 100% success so far!)

 

Race 5 - Class VI - 1200m - 2:20 PM

Complete Field: Hi Volt 6 (9-0), Nawab Prince(Krc)5 (9-0), Quality Street 4 (8-0), Sher Khan 2 (8-2), Dominus 3 (7-10), (+2 All)

Book Predictions:

  • Favourite: Hi Volt
  • Place: Sher Khan
  • Fluke: Dominus

My Predictions:

  • Favourite: Sher Khan (2) - 8-2, WON Week 3 R7!
  • Place: Hi Volt (6) - 9-0, WON Week 3 R4 but FAILED Derby Trials
  • Fluke: Dominus (3) - 7-10, Placed 3rd Week 3 R8

Analysis & Reasoning:

  • 🏆 SHER KHAN - PROVEN WINNER AT 1200M!
    • WON Week 3 R7 at 1200m distance! (tactical "got through at rail")
    • Placed 2nd Week 2 R7
    • This race is 1200m - EXACT distance Sher Khan won at!
    • 8-2 record shows quality
  • Hi Volt (9-0) - Distance-dependent:
    • WON Week 3 R4 at 1000m (electrifying)
    • FAILED Week 3 R7 Derby Trials at 2000m (distance too long)
    • At 1200m? Middle ground, uncertain
    • Still unbeaten but untested at 1200m
  • Dominus (7-10) - Placed 3rd Week 3 R8, veteran
  • Nawab Prince (9-0) - Derby Trials participant, quality
  • Quality Street (8-0) - Unknown quantity
  • (+2 All) - Larger field

Why I disagree with book:

  • Book has Hi Volt as favourite (unbeaten, won at 1000m)
  • I prefer Sher Khan: Proven winner at THIS EXACT DISTANCE (1200m)
  • Distance-specific form is critical - learned from Hi Volt Derby failure
  • Hi Volt unbeaten at sprint, but 1200m is different

KEY FACTOR: Sher Khan won at 1200m Week 3. Hi Volt won at 1000m. THIS race is 1200m.

Confidence Level: 🟢 MEDIUM-HIGH (Distance-specific form favors Sher Khan)

 

Race 6 - Class VII Division-II (Maiden) - 1100m - 2:55 PM

Complete Field: Chaman 7 (8-8), Sysmed Queen 6 (8-7), Best Call 8 (8-6), Green Card 4 (8-6), Ghunsa 5 (8-6), Secret Lady 10 (8-3), Prince of Gujrat 8 (8-2), Prince of Dawaud 2 (8-0), Dubawi's Dream 3 (7-13)

Book Predictions:

  • Favourite: Sysmed Queen
  • Place: Prince of Dawaud
  • Fluke: Green Card

My Predictions:

  • Favourite: Sysmed Queen (6) - 8-7, Placed 2nd Week 4 R5!
  • Place: Green Card (4) - 8-6, Placed 3rd Week 3 R9
  • Fluke: Dubawi's Dream (3) - 7-13 MOST STARTS (maiden pattern!)

Analysis & Reasoning:

  • AGREE WITH BOOK ON SYSMED QUEEN!
  • 🔥 SYSMED QUEEN - RECENT PLACER IN MAIDEN!
    • Placed 2nd Week 4 R5 (surprise jump to place)
    • Following consistent placer pattern
    • 8-7 record shows quality for maiden
    • 1100m maiden - Experience matters
  • Green Card (8-6) - Placed 3rd Week 3 R9 (surprise), has form
  • Dubawi's Dream (7-13) - MOST STARTS (13 races!)
    • Tried maiden pattern Week 4 R9, failed
    • But 1100m maiden vs 1400m maiden different?
    • Still most experienced by starts
  • Best Call (8-6) - Balanced maiden record
  • Chaman (8-8) - Good record for maiden
  • Prince of Dawaud (8-0) - Unbeaten but maidens are chaos

Why I agree with book:

  • Sysmed Queen recent placer - strongest pattern
  • Book has Green Card as fluke (I have as place) - both recognize value
  • Both focusing on recent form over records

MAIDEN CONFUSION: Week 4 taught that maiden patterns are unreliable. Recent form (Sysmed Queen) is best bet.

Confidence Level: 🟢 HIGH (Recent placer pattern + book agreement)

 

Race 7 - Class VII Division-I&II - 1400m - 3:30 PM

Complete Field: Golden Star 6 (8-10), Queen of Pharoah 3 (8-4), Khokhar One 2 (8-4), Brigadier 5 (8-4), Moni Prince 8 (8-2), Power Show 4 (7-10), Casino (Krc) 7 (7-10), (+2 All)

Book Predictions:

  • Favourite: Golden Star
  • Place: Queen of Pharoah
  • Fluke: Brigadier

My Predictions:

  • Favourite: Brigadier (5) - 8-4, Placed 2nd Week 4 R5!
  • Place: Queen of Pharoah (3) - 8-4, WON Week 3 R9 (Ghaznavi Cup)
  • Fluke: Power Show (4) - 7-10, Placed 3rd Week 3 R10, 2nd Week 2 R7

Analysis & Reasoning:

  • 🔥 BRIGADIER - RECENT PLACER!
    • Placed 2nd Week 4 R5 (surprise)
    • Following proven pattern: Recent placers win next
    • 8-4 balanced record
  • Queen of Pharoah (8-4) - WON Week 3 R9 Ghaznavi Cup (maiden)!
    • Quality proven, now in competitive race
    • Jockey Abdullah Amir (quality rider)
  • Golden Star (8-10) - Most experienced
    • WON Week 2 R6, but that was 4 weeks ago
    • Placed poorly since (need to verify)
  • Power Show (7-10) - INCREDIBLY CONSISTENT!
    • Placed 2nd Week 2 R7
    • Placed 3rd Week 3 R10
    • Keeps placing, could win
  • Khokhar One (8-4) - WON Week 3 R4 as upset!
    • Proven quality winner
  • (+2 All) - Larger field = chaos

Why I disagree with book:

  • Book has Golden Star as favourite (most experienced)
  • Book has Brigadier as FLUKE (I have as favourite!)
  • Recent placer pattern is too strong: 3/3 success (Crown Pharoah, Shahan Shah, Sher Khan)
  • Brigadier just placed Week 4 - Following exact pattern

COMPETITIVE RACE: Multiple quality horses (Brigadier, Queen, Khokhar One, Power Show)

Confidence Level: 🟡 MEDIUM-HIGH (Pattern strong but competitive field)

 

CRITICAL INFORMATION ANALYSIS

🚨 AWAIS ANJUM - WHERE IS HE?

PROBLEM: I don't see jockey assignments in the race card!

Awais Anjum Week 3-4 Record:

  • Week 3 R6: Ronaq (Pakistan Oaks)
  • Week 3 R7: Jupiter (Derby Trials)
  • Week 4 R4: Crown Pharoah
  • Week 4 R5: Dubawi's Angel
  • 4/4 = 100% SUCCESS!

IF Awais Anjum rides ANY horse this week, that becomes AUTO-FAVOURITE!

Need to verify jockey assignments before finalizing bets!

 

TRAINER M RAMZAN - WHICH HORSES?

Week 4 Record:

  • Anni Power (won R2)
  • Shahan Shah (won R6)
  • 2/2 = 100% SUCCESS!

Anni Power (R2) is trained by M Ramzan - Already in my favourite picks!

 

RECENT WINNERS IN THIS WEEK'S RACES:

  1. Anni Power (R2) - Won Week 4 R2 (1 week ago)
  2. Fayyum (R2) - Won Week 4 R1 (1 week ago)
  3. Dawood Prince (R3) - Won Week 3 R2 (2 weeks ago)
  4. Paddington (R3) - Won Week 3 R6 (2 weeks ago, failed R4 Week 4)
  5. Sher Khan (R5) - Won Week 3 R7 (2 weeks ago)
  6. Queen of Pharoah (R7) - Won Week 3 R9 (2 weeks ago)
  7. Khokhar One (R7) - Won Week 3 R4 (2 weeks ago)

 

RECENT PLACERS (Week 4) - HIGH VALUE!:

Following Crown Pharoah/Shahan Shah/Sher Khan pattern:

  1. Mafnood JR (R1) - Placed 2nd Week 2 R2
  2. Haseeb Thrill (R1) - Placed 2nd Week 4 R2
  3. Bodrum (R2) - Placed 2nd Week 4 R6
  4. Zindagi (R2) - Placed 3rd Week 4 R6
  5. Pakiza (R3) - Placed 2nd Week 4 R3
  6. Waqat (R4) - Placed 2nd Week 4 R4 ⭐⭐⭐
  7. Dominus (R5) - Placed 3rd Week 3 R8
  8. Sysmed Queen (R6) - Placed 2nd Week 4 R5 ⭐⭐⭐
  9. Brigadier (R7) - Placed 2nd Week 4 R5 ⭐⭐⭐

Pattern Success: 3/3 (100%) - Crown Pharoah, Shahan Shah, Sher Khan all won after placing!

 

SUMMARY: BOOK vs MY PREDICTIONS

Race

Book Favourite

My Favourite

Agreement?

Key Pattern

1

Haseeb Thrill (9-0)

Mafnood JR (8-4)

Recent placer pattern

2

Bodrum (8-6)

Anni Power (8-4)

Recent winner + M Ramzan

3

Dawood Prince (8-12)

Dawood Prince (8-12)

Elite proven winner

4

Golden Heart (8-12)

Waqat (8-2)

Recent placer pattern

5

Hi Volt (9-0)

Sher Khan (8-2)

Distance-specific form

6

Sysmed Queen (8-7)

Sysmed Queen (8-7)

Recent placer pattern

7

Golden Star (8-10)

Brigadier (8-4)

Recent placer pattern

Agreements: 2/7 (29%)

 

MY STRONGEST PICKS - RANKED

TIER 1: HIGHEST CONFIDENCE (Pattern-Based)

  1. Dawood Prince (R3) 🌟🌟🌟🌟🌟
    • Elite 8-12 record (evolved from 9-2)
    • Won Week 3 R2 as favourite
    • Competitive 1000m race
    • Book agrees!
    • 95% confidence
  2. Sysmed Queen (R6) 🌟🌟🌟🌟
    • Placed 2nd Week 4 R5
    • Recent placer pattern (3/3 success)
    • Book agrees!
    • 85% confidence
  3. Waqat (R4) 🌟🌟🌟🌟
    • Placed 2nd Week 4 R4
    • Recent placer pattern (3/3 success)
    • Book has as place, I elevate to favourite
    • 80% confidence
  4. Anni Power (R2) 🌟🌟🌟
    • Won Week 4 R2 (1 week ago)
    • Trainer M Ramzan (2/2 success Week 4)
    • Recent winner can repeat (Augustus did Week 1-2)
    • 75% confidence

TIER 2: STRONG CONFIDENCE

  1. Brigadier (R7) 🌟🌟🌟
    • Placed 2nd Week 4 R5
    • Recent placer pattern
    • Book has as fluke, I see value
    • 70% confidence
  2. Sher Khan (R5) 🌟🌟🌟
    • Won Week 3 R7 at 1200m
    • This race is 1200m (distance match!)
    • Distance-specific form advantage
    • 70% confidence
  3. Mafnood JR (R1) 🌟🌟
    • Consistent placer multiple weeks
    • Pattern holds but oldest data
    • 65% confidence

 

MY FLUKE PICKS (40-50% Success Category!)

Top Fluke Picks with Recent Form:

  1. R3: Pakiza - Placed 2nd Week 4 R3!
  2. R7: Power Show - Placed 3rd Week 3 R10, 2nd Week 2 R7, incredibly consistent!
  3. R2: Zindagi - Placed 3rd Week 4 R6
  4. R4: Set In Stone - 8-10 quality record
  5. R5: Dominus - Placed 3rd Week 3 R8
  6. R6: Green Card - Placed 3rd Week 3 R9
  7. R1: Largess - 8-10 most experienced

My fluke picks with recent placing: Pakiza, Power Show, Zindagi, Dominus, Green Card

 

BEST BETS OF THE DAY

WIN BETS (Highest Confidence):

  1. Dawood Prince (R3) - Elite + proven + book agrees
  2. Sysmed Queen (R6) - Recent placer + book agrees
  3. Waqat (R4) - Recent placer pattern (100% success so far)

EACH-WAY/PLACE BETS:

  1. Brigadier (R7) - Recent placer, competitive field
  2. Anni Power (R2) - Recent winner + M Ramzan
  3. Sher Khan (R5) - Distance-specific advantage

VALUE/LONGSHOT (Fluke Picks):

  1. Pakiza (R3) - Placed 2nd last week
  2. Power Show (R7) - Most consistent placer (3 consecutive)
  3. Zindagi (R2) - Placed 3rd last week

 

FINAL STRATEGY

BEFORE BETTING - MUST VERIFY:

  1. AWAIS ANJUM JOCKEY ASSIGNMENTS ⚠️⚠️⚠️
    • If riding ANY horse, that becomes AUTO-FAVOURITE
    • Overrides ALL analysis
    • 100% success rate (4/4)
  2. M RAMZAN TRAINING
    • Anni Power confirmed (already my R2 favourite)
    • Check for other horses
  3. RED CHILLY STATUS (R3)
    • If raced Week 4 = 4 consecutive weeks = AVOID
    • If rested Week 4 = dangerous fluke bet

CONFIDENCE BY RACE:

🟢 VERY HIGH: R3 (Dawood Prince)
🟢 HIGH: R6 (Sysmed Queen), R4 (Waqat)
🟡 MEDIUM-HIGH: R2 (Anni Power), R5 (Sher Khan), R7 (Brigadier)
🟡 MEDIUM: R1 (Mafnood JR)

 

KEY PATTERNS BEING TESTED WEEK 5:

  1. Recent Placer Pattern (3 bets): Waqat, Sysmed Queen, Brigadier
    • Success so far: 3/3 (Crown Pharoah, Shahan Shah, Sher Khan)
    • Testing if pattern continues
  2. Recent Winner Repeating: Anni Power
    • Augustus did this Week 1-2
    • Testing if 1-week gap allows repeat
  3. Distance-Specific Form: Sher Khan at 1200m
    • Learned from Hi Volt Derby failure
    • Testing distance matching
  4. Elite Record in Competitive: Dawood Prince
    • 9-2/8-12 elite tier works outside maidens
    • Proven Week 3
  5. Trainer M Ramzan: Anni Power
    • 2/2 success Week 4
    • Testing consistency

Week 5 will validate or refute these patterns! Let's see if the breakthrough continues!

Thursday, February 19, 2026

LRC refined strategy for 25th day meet

 


 

Predictions for Lahore Winter Meeting - Sunday, February 22nd, 2026 (25th Day)

REFINED STRATEGY BASED ON 3 WEEKS OF DATA

Asher Butt

 

Key Learnings Applied:

  1. Elite records (9-2) > Recent winners - Quality over momentum
  2. Experience (8-12) in their field - Context matters
  3. My fluke picks are best (40% success rate)
  4. Consistent placers - Track horses placing 2-3 consecutive weeks
  5. Distance-specific form - Don't cross 1000m winners to 1400m+
  6. Past major wins in Cup races - Research required
  7. Jockey quality matters - Especially in competitive fields
  8. ⚠️ Recent winners from late races (R5-R8) fail - Tired pattern
  9. ⚠️ Unbeaten records rarely win (6.7% success rate)

 

Race-by-Race Predictions

Race 1 - Class VII Division-VI&VII (Maiden) - 1100m - 12:30 PM

Complete Field: Princess Arooj 6 (9-2), Singhar 2 (8-12), Baghi 7 (8-9), True My Love 8 (8-8), Majesty 3 (8-2), Faryum 5 (8-1), Abdullah Pasrur 4 (7-12), (+2 All)

Book Predictions:

  • Favourite: Singhar
  • Place: Abdullah Pasrur
  • Fluke: Faryum

My Predictions:

  • Favourite: Princess Arooj (6) - 9-2 ELITE record!
  • Place: Singhar (2) - 8-12 most experienced
  • Fluke: Abdullah Pasrur (4) - 7-12 veteran maiden

Analysis & Reasoning:

  • 🔥 PRINCESS AROOJ (9-2) - This is an ELITE record! Only 2 losses in 11 starts
  • Week 3 lesson: Dawood Prince (9-2) won easily - this record tier WORKS
  • Singhar (8-12) - Most experienced, placed 2nd Race 1 Week 2, consistent
  • True My Love (8-8) - Balanced but lower than elite tier
  • Majesty (8-2) - Has FAILED twice already (Week 1 R1, Week 2 R1)
  • Faryum (8-1) - Limited experience but placed 3rd Week 2
  • Abdullah Pasrur (7-12) - Most starts, veteran maiden
  • (+2 All) - Larger field but Princess Arooj's record stands out

Why I disagree with book:

  • Book has Singhar (8-12) as favourite - good experience but not elite
  • 9-2 record is SUPERIOR to 8-12 - Fewer losses = higher quality
  • Week 3 proved elite records (9-2) dominate

Confidence Level: 🟢 HIGH (Elite 9-2 record is gold standard)

 

Race 2 - Class VII Division-VI&VII - 1100m - 1:05 PM

Complete Field: Haseeb Thrill 6 (9-0), Naveed-e-Sahar 7 (8-12), Anni Power 3 (8-6), Mafnood JR 5 (8-6), American Star 4 (7-11), Silent Melody 8 (7-10), Self Belief 2 (7-10), Thunder Prince 9 (7-10)

Book Predictions:

  • Favourite: Mafnood JR
  • Place: American Star
  • Fluke: Naveed-e-Sahar

My Predictions:

  • Favourite: Naveed-e-Sahar (7) - 8-12 most experienced
  • Place: Mafnood JR (5) - 8-6, placed 2nd Week 2 R2!
  • Fluke: Anni Power (3) - 8-6 balanced record

Analysis & Reasoning:

  • Naveed-e-Sahar (8-12) - Most experienced in field
  • 🔥 MAFNOOD JR placed 2nd Week 2 Race 2! - Recent form, currently hot
  • Haseeb Thrill (9-0) - Unbeaten but we know this pattern (6.7% success)
  • American Star (7-11) - Placed 3rd Week 2 R2, has recent form
  • Anni Power (8-6) - Decent record
  • Self Belief (7-10) - FAILED in Week 2 R2 despite 8-0 record then

Why I partially agree with book:

  • Book has Mafnood JR as favourite (I have as place)
  • Mafnood JR's recent 2nd place IS valuable
  • But Naveed-e-Sahar's 8-12 experience edge matters at 1100m

Key Factor: Mafnood JR's recent 2nd place (Week 2) shows current race fitness - this is the "consistent placer" pattern working!

Confidence Level: 🟡 MEDIUM-HIGH (Competitive between top two)

 

Race 3 - Class VII Division-III&IV - 1100m - 1:40 PM

Complete Field: Asif Princess 9 (9-0), Loud And Clear 6 (9-0), Luckvir 2 (8-10), Haseeb Thunder 8 (8-6), Pakiza 5 (8-4), Red Chilly 4 (8-4), Absolutely Not 10 (8-0), Lex Lugar 1 (7-10), Thunder Boy 7 (7-8)

Book Predictions:

  • Favourite: Red Chilly
  • Place: Loud And Clear
  • Fluke: Haseeb Thunder

My Predictions:

  • Favourite: Red Chilly (4) - 8-4 AND WON Race 3 Week 2, placed 2nd Week 3!
  • Place: Luckvir (2) - 8-10 most experienced
  • Fluke: Pakiza (5) - 8-4, placed 3rd Week 3 R3

Analysis & Reasoning:

  • 🏆 RED CHILLY - PROVEN WINNER!
    • Won Race 3 Week 2 (came from back of pack)
    • Placed 2nd Race 3 Week 3 (as expected)
    • This is a QUALITY horse on form!
  • Luckvir (8-10) - Most experienced
  • Pakiza (8-4) - Placed 3rd last week same race
  • Asif Princess (9-0) & Loud And Clear (9-0) - Two unbeaten but pattern fails
  • Lex Lugar (7-10) - Could this be Lex LUGER? If so, dangerous!

CRITICAL QUESTION: Is "Lex Lugar" actually "Lex Luger" who won 3 races in a row Weeks 1-2?

  • If YES: Co-favourite with Red Chilly!
  • If NO: Red Chilly clear favourite

Why I agree with book:

  • Book has Red Chilly as favourite - CORRECT!
  • Red Chilly has proven quality and recent form
  • This is a STRONG pick

Confidence Level: 🟢 HIGH (Red Chilly proven winner at this distance/class)

 

Race 4 - Class VII Division-II (Maiden) - 1000m - 2:15 PM

Complete Field: Best Call 11 (8-8), Ghunsa 2 (8-8), Fatteh Prince 10 (8-6), Almond Eye 4 (8-5), Secret Lady 8 (8-5), Crown Pharoah 5 (8-4), Golden Choice 7 (8-4), Prince of Dawaud 9 (8-2), Lord & Lion 6 (8-2), Shibra 3 (7-11)

Book Predictions:

  • Favourite: Crown Pharoah
  • Place: Lord & Lion
  • Fluke: Golden Choice

My Predictions:

  • Favourite: Shibra (3) - 7-11 MOST starts (maiden pattern!)
  • Place: Best Call (11) - 8-8 tied most wins
  • Fluke: Golden Choice (7) - 8-4 quality horse

Analysis & Reasoning:

  • 1000m MAIDEN = Most starts wins pattern!
  • Shibra (7-11) - 11 starts, most experienced (Week 1-2 pattern)
  • Best Call & Ghunsa (8-8) - Equal records, competitive
  • Lord & Lion (8-2) - Placed 3rd Shalimar Cup Week 1, has quality
  • Golden Choice (8-4) - FAILED in Shalimar Cup Week 1 but class horse
  • Crown Pharoah (8-4) - Placed 2nd Race 5 Week 3, has recent form!

Why I disagree with book:

  • Book has Crown Pharoah as favourite
  • Crown Pharoah DID place 2nd last week (valuable recent form)
  • But maiden pattern at 1000m = MOST STARTS wins
  • Shibra 11 starts > Crown Pharoah's recent 2nd

Conflict: Recent placer (Crown Pharoah) vs Most starts pattern (Shibra)

  • 1000m maiden pattern has worked (Babbar Sher 7-13, Altaf Star)
  • Crown Pharoah's recent 2nd is tempting but in different race (R5 1400m)

Confidence Level: 🟡 MEDIUM (Pattern vs Recent form conflict)

 

Race 5 - Class VII Division-I&II - 1000m - 2:50 PM

Complete Field: New York City 3 (8-10), Dubawi's Angel 5 (8-10), Casino (Krc) 6 (8-4), Brigadier 4 (8-4), Golden Heart 7 (7-12), Samore City 2 (7-12), (+6 Div.I)

Book Predictions:

  • Favourite: New York City
  • Place: Golden Heart
  • Fluke: Samore City

My Predictions:

  • Favourite: New York City (3) - 8-10 tied most experienced
  • Place: Dubawi's Angel (5) - 8-10 equally experienced
  • Fluke: Golden Heart (7) - 7-12 veteran

Analysis & Reasoning:

  • New York City (8-10) - Placed 3rd Race 7 Week 2 (Derby Trials photo finish)
  • Dubawi's Angel (8-10) - Equally experienced
  • (+6 Div.I) - Large field means chaos
  • Golden Heart (7-12) - Placed 3rd Week 3 R4
  • Samore City (7-12) - Equal to Golden Heart
  • Two horses at 8-10 - Very competitive

Why I agree with book:

  • Book has New York City as favourite - CORRECT
  • New York City has Derby Trials experience (major race)
  • Good quality field

Confidence Level: 🟡 MEDIUM (Two equal 8-10 horses, large field)

 

Race 6 - Class VII Division-V&VI - 1100m - 3:25 PM

Complete Field: Princess Anaya(Krc)3 (8-0), Shahan Shah 5 (8-10), Augustus 7 (8-6), Bodrum 4 (8-6), Dur-e-And 6 (8-6), Zindagi 3 (8-6), Zaman Sahib 2 (8-0), Pocket Power 9 (7-12)

Book Predictions:

  • Favourite: Bodrum
  • Place: Zindagi
  • Fluke: Shahan Shah

My Predictions:

  • Favourite: Shahan Shah (5) - 8-10 most experienced
  • Place: Augustus (7) - 8-6 AND WON Week 2 R1 & R2 back-to-back!
  • Fluke: Pocket Power (9) - 7-12 veteran

Analysis & Reasoning:

  • Shahan Shah (8-10) - Most experienced, placed 2nd Week 2 R3
  • 🏆 AUGUSTUS (8-6) - Won back-to-back Weeks 1-2 R1→R2!
    • Won Week 1 Race 1 (upset)
    • Won Week 2 Race 2 (back-to-back)
    • Has NOT raced Week 3 - FRESH!
    • Now racing again - 2 week break might help!
  • Four horses at 8-6 - Very competitive (Bodrum, Dur-e-And, Zindagi)
  • Princess Anaya (8-0) & Zaman Sahib (8-0) - Unbeaten pattern fails
  • Zaman Sahib FAILED twice (Week 1 R2, Week 2 R2)

Why I disagree with book:

  • Book has Bodrum as favourite (8-6)
  • Book has Shahan Shah as FLUKE (I have as favourite!)
  • Shahan Shah's 8-10 > Bodrum's 8-6 - More experience
  • Augustus is WILD CARD - Fresh from 2-week rest after back-to-back wins

Key Factor: Augustus had 2-week break - may be rested and ready! But also could be "cold" from no racing.

Confidence Level: 🟡 MEDIUM (Competitive field, multiple 8-6 horses)

 

SUMMARY OF PREDICTIONS

Book vs My Predictions Comparison:

Race

Book Favourite

My Favourite

Agreement?

Key Difference

1

Singhar (8-12)

Princess Arooj (9-2)

Elite 9-2 record vs experience

2

Mafnood JR (8-6)

Naveed-e-Sahar (8-12)

Recent placer vs most experienced

3

Red Chilly (8-4)

Red Chilly (8-4)

AGREE - Proven winner!

4

Crown Pharoah (8-4)

Shibra (7-11)

Recent placer vs maiden pattern

5

New York City (8-10)

New York City (8-10)

AGREE

6

Bodrum (8-6)

Shahan Shah (8-10)

Experience vs book pick

Agreements: 2/6 (33%)

 

🔥 MY STRONGEST PICKS:

  1. Princess Arooj (Race 1) 🌟 - Elite 9-2 record (Week 3 lesson applied)
  2. Red Chilly (Race 3) 🏆 - Won Week 2, placed Week 3, PROVEN quality
  3. New York City (Race 5) - Derby Trials experience, most experienced

💎 VALUE PICKS (My Flukes):

  1. Abdullah Pasrur (Race 1) - Veteran maiden 7-12
  2. Pakiza (Race 3) - Placed last week same race
  3. Golden Choice (Race 4) - Quality from Shalimar Cup
  4. Pocket Power (Race 6) - 7-12 veteran

WILD CARDS:

  1. Mafnood JR (Race 2) - Placed 2nd Week 2, recent form
  2. Augustus (Race 6) - Back-to-back winner Week 1-2, fresh from 2-week break
  3. Lex Lugar (Race 3) - If this is Lex Luger, MAJOR threat!

🎯 CONSISTENT PLACERS TO WATCH:

  1. Red Chilly - Won Week 2, 2nd Week 3, racing again
  2. Mafnood JR - 2nd Week 2, racing again
  3. Shahan Shah - 2nd Week 2, racing again
  4. Crown Pharoah - 2nd Week 3, racing again

 

STRATEGIC INSIGHTS

Key Patterns Applied:

Elite 9-2 record prioritized (Princess Arooj)
Proven recent winners (Red Chilly won Week 2, placed Week 3)
Consistent placers (Mafnood JR, Crown Pharoah, Shahan Shah)
Maiden pattern (1000m) - Most starts (Shibra 7-11)
Experience advantage (8-10, 8-12 records)
Fresh horses (Augustus 2-week break)
⚠️ Avoiding unbeaten without proof (6.7% success rate)

Where I'm Gambling:

  1. Race 1: Princess Arooj (9-2) over Singhar (8-12) - Elite record bet
  2. Race 2: Naveed-e-Sahar over Mafnood JR - Experience vs recent placer
  3. Race 4: Shibra (most starts) over Crown Pharoah (recent placer) - Pattern vs form
  4. Race 6: Shahan Shah over Bodrum - Experience vs book pick

Where I Agree with Book:

  1. Race 3: Red Chilly - STRONG AGREE, proven winner
  2. Race 5: New York City - Quality horse with experience

 

CONFIDENCE LEVELS BY RACE:

🟢 HIGH CONFIDENCE:

  • Race 1: Princess Arooj (Elite 9-2 record)
  • Race 3: Red Chilly (Proven winner, recent form)

🟡 MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE:

  • Race 2: Naveed-e-Sahar (Most experienced)
  • Race 5: New York City (Derby Trials veteran)

🟡 MEDIUM CONFIDENCE:

  • Race 4: Shibra (Maiden pattern vs recent form conflict)
  • Race 6: Shahan Shah (Competitive field)

 

CRITICAL QUESTIONS:

  1. Is "Lex Lugar" (Race 3) actually "Lex Luger"?
    • If YES: Major threat, possible co-favourite
    • If NO: Red Chilly clear favourite
  2. Will Augustus' 2-week break help or hurt?
    • Fresh legs = advantage?
    • Or cold from no racing = disadvantage?
  3. Crown Pharoah vs Shibra (Race 4)?
    • Recent 2nd place form (Crown Pharoah)
    • vs Most starts maiden pattern (Shibra)
    • Which matters more?

 

PREDICTION STRATEGY SUMMARY:

This week I'm prioritizing:

  1. Elite records (9-2) - Week 3 lesson
  2. Proven recent winners (Red Chilly)
  3. Consistent placers (Mafnood JR, Shahan Shah, Crown Pharoah)
  4. Experience in context (8-10, 8-12 in their fields)
  5. Maiden patterns (most starts at 1000m)
  6. Fresh horses (Augustus 2-week break)

This week I'm avoiding:

  1. Unbeaten records without proof (6.7% success)
  2. Over-reliance on single recent race (balanced view)
  3. Book picks without verification (trust my patterns)

 

BEST BETS OF THE DAY:

Win Bets:

  1. Princess Arooj (Race 1) - Elite 9-2 record
  2. Red Chilly (Race 3) - Proven winner on form
  3. New York City (Race 5) - Experience + quality

Each-Way/Place Bets:

  1. Mafnood JR (Race 2) - Recent 2nd place
  2. Shahan Shah (Race 6) - Most experienced
  3. Augustus (Race 6) - Wild card fresh from rest

Value/Longshot:

  1. Shibra (Race 4) - Maiden pattern play
  2. Pakiza (Race 3) - Recent placer
  3. Abdullah Pasrur (Race 1) - Veteran maiden