LRC day four pre-race assessment
Asher
Butt
4th
Day — Lahore Winter Meeting 2026-2027
Sunday, 27th September 2026 | 5 Races |
First Race 2:30 PM
Races 1 & 2 over 900m | Race 3 & 5 over 1000m | Race 4 over 1100m
Race
1 · 2:30 PM — Class VII Division VII — 900m
Field of 10
|
# |
Horse |
Weight |
|
1 |
Chika Rika 4 |
8-12 |
|
2 |
One Side 8 |
8-9 |
|
3 |
Torpedo 6 |
8-8 |
|
4 |
Al Murtajiz 7 |
8-4 |
|
5 |
Gee-o-Lahori 5 |
8-4 |
|
6 |
Naveed-e-Sahar 2 |
8-4 |
|
7 |
Silent Melody 11 |
7-10 |
|
8 |
American Star 9 |
7-10 |
|
9 |
Hamdan Prince 3 |
7-8 |
|
10 |
Raees Sahib 10 |
7-8 |
Book Fav: Naveed-e-Sahar |
Book Place: One Side | Book Fluke: Chika Rika
My
Fav: Chika Rika | My Place: One Side | My
Fluke: Torpedo
My reasoning:
Chika Rika (8-12) carries the outright top weight in this ten-horse Division
VII field — 3 pounds ahead of One Side, 4 ahead of Torpedo, and a full 8 pounds
clear of the three-way tie at 8-4 that includes the book's favourite
Naveed-e-Sahar. The book making Naveed-e-Sahar (8-4) the favourite at joint
fourth weight while ignoring the top weight is a bold form-over-weight call
that the Winter Meeting's 900m data partially supports — but over Division VII
at 900m with a ten-horse field, the weight band from 8-12 down to 8-4 separates
clearly and Chika Rika's 8-12 is a distinct structural advantage. My favourite
is Chika Rika. One Side (8-9) at second highest weight is the natural place —
the book agrees and it sits in the classic frame profile. Torpedo (8-8) is my
fluke — it has been allocated 9-0 previously and its reduced weight of 8-8 here
may allow it to run with more freedom. Naveed-e-Sahar (8-4) as the book's
favourite at joint fourth weight concedes 8 pounds to the top weight — a
significant give at the full first-race trip.
Race
2 · 3:05 PM — Class VII Division V & VI — 900m
Field of 12
|
# |
Horse |
Weight |
|
1 |
Wake Up 12 |
9-0 |
|
2 |
Princess Arooj 3 |
9-0 |
|
3 |
Ghazal 8 |
8-10 |
|
4 |
Lucky Macs 4 |
8-10 |
|
5 |
Black Fire 6 |
8-8 |
|
6 |
True Promise 9 |
8-6 |
|
7 |
Royal Stone 7 |
8-6 |
|
8 |
Tiger of Sultan 13 |
8-6 |
|
9 |
Sky Warrior 10 |
8-2 |
|
10 |
Babbar Sher 5 |
7-12 |
|
11 |
Prince of Kashmir 11 |
7-12 |
|
12 |
True My Love 2 |
7-10 |
Book Fav: Royal Stone |
Book Place: Black Fire | Book Fluke: Babbar Sher
My
Fav: Wake Up | My Place: Princess Arooj | My
Fluke: Ghazal
My reasoning:
The book and I diverge sharply. Wake Up (9-0) and Princess Arooj (9-0) share
the outright top weight — 4 pounds ahead of Ghazal and Lucky Macs, 6 ahead of
Black Fire, and a full 12 pounds ahead of the book's favourite Royal Stone
(8-6). The book making Royal Stone the favourite at 8-6 while two horses carry
9-0 is a form-over-weight call that contradicts the weight structure
emphatically. Both Wake Up and Princess Arooj have been consistent top-weight
performers throughout the meeting cycle. Wake Up won Race 5 on Day 2 of the
Summer Meeting and Winter Day 2 Race 2, establishing itself as one of the most
reliable performers at this weight band. My favourite is Wake Up. Princess
Arooj (9-0) — winner of Race 1 on Day 8 of the Summer Meeting and consistent
frame finisher — is the natural place selection at joint top weight. Ghazal
(8-10) is my fluke — it won Race 2 of the War Heroes Cup as an upset from 8-2
and has now been elevated to 8-10, the third highest weight in this
twelve-runner field. The book's trio of Royal Stone (fav), Black Fire (place),
and Babbar Sher (fluke) all sit well below the two 9-0 allocations over 900m in
a twelve-horse field.
Race
3 · 3:40 PM — Class VII Division IV & V — 1000m
Field of 7
|
# |
Horse |
Weight |
|
1 |
Paddington 2 |
9-0 |
|
2 |
Shair-e-Niaz Baig 8 |
8-12 |
|
3 |
Be A Man 5 |
8-12 |
|
4 |
Haseeb Thunder 7 |
8-0 |
|
5 |
Gondal Baba 6 |
8-0 |
|
6 |
Raja The Great 4 |
8-0 |
|
7 |
Fakhar-e-Sardar 3 |
7-12 |
Book Fav: Haseeb Thunder |
Book Place: Raja The Great | Book Fluke: Paddington
My
Fav: Paddington | My Place: Shair-e-Niaz Baig | My Fluke: Be A Man
My reasoning:
Complete and emphatic disagreement with the book. Paddington (9-0) carries the
outright top weight over 1000m in Division IV & V — 2 pounds ahead of
Shair-e-Niaz Baig and Be A Man, 14 pounds ahead of the book's favourite Haseeb
Thunder (8-0), and 16 ahead of Fakhar-e-Sardar at 7-12. The book making Haseeb
Thunder the favourite while designating Paddington the fluke — in a seven-horse
field over 1000m where Paddington carries clear top weight authority — is one
of the most analytically difficult book calls to rationalise across the entire
Winter Meeting. Paddington won Race 4 on the August Cup Day from top weight,
won Race 5 on Day 10 of the Summer Meeting, and the handicapper has now
allocated it 9-0 in Division IV & V over the full 1000m. The race data
throughout the meeting consistently shows that at 1000m in senior divisions,
the top weight prevails. My favourite is Paddington without hesitation.
Shair-e-Niaz Baig (8-12) at second highest weight alongside Be A Man is my
place — it framed in Race 6 of the War Heroes Cup and carries consistent
upper-weight form. Be A Man (8-12) is my fluke — it has been one of the
meeting's most competitive horses across multiple divisions and shares the
second weight position. Haseeb Thunder (8-0) conceding 14 pounds to the top
weight over 1000m as the book's favourite is a call I cannot support regardless
of its recent pace.
Race
4 · 4:15 PM — Class VI — 1100m
Field of 4 (- 4
supplementaries)
|
# |
Horse |
Weight |
|
1 |
Nisha 5 |
9-2 |
|
2 |
Queen of Pharaoh 3 |
8-4 |
|
3 |
Sultan 4 |
8-2 |
|
4 |
Sher Khan 2 |
7-12 |
Book Fav: Sultan | Book
Place: Queen of Pharaoh | Book Fluke: Sher Khan
My
Fav: Nisha | My Place: Queen of Pharaoh | My Fluke: Sultan
My reasoning:
Nisha (9-2) carries the outright top weight in this four-horse Class VI field —
14 pounds ahead of Queen of Pharaoh, 16 clear of Sultan, and 22 pounds clear of
Sher Khan. The book makes Sultan (8-2) the favourite while designating Nisha
the fluke — exactly the same structural inversion it applied to the September
Cup three weeks ago where Nisha also carried 9-4 and the book also made the
lighter horse the favourite. Nisha's September Cup second place (beaten only by
Green Card) on the longer 1200m trip is the most recent evidence: it framed
under significant weight, ran competitively, and the handicapper has kept its
9-2 allocation for this 1100m Class VI race. My favourite is Nisha. The four
supplementaries (- 4) are unknown quantities that could reshape this field
entirely — if any carry significant weight, the analysis may need revisiting at
declaration time. Queen of Pharaoh (8-4) is my place — it won the Major Shabbir
Sharif Cup in the War Heroes meeting from the place position and carries the
second highest declared weight. Sultan (8-2) drops to my fluke — it is the
book's favourite and carries legitimate form, but conceding 16 pounds to Nisha
over 1100m in Class VI is a structural disadvantage that the extended distance
makes more pronounced.
Race
5 · 4:50 PM — Class VII Division II & III — 1000m
Field of 6 (+ X Sarkar Raj
supplementary)
|
# |
Horse |
Weight |
|
1 |
Bellatrix 5 |
9-0 |
|
2 |
Alaska 7 (X Sarkar Raj) |
8-10 |
|
3 |
Construct Craft 2 |
8-4 |
|
4 |
Imperius 3 |
8-2 |
|
5 |
Mister Sardar 4 |
8-1 |
|
6 |
Desert Parri 6 |
7-10 |
Book Fav: Bellatrix | Book
Place: Construct Craft | Book Fluke: Alaska
My
Fav: Bellatrix | My Place: Alaska | My
Fluke: Construct Craft
My reasoning:
Full agreement on the favourite — Bellatrix (9-0) has been the outstanding
horse of Division II & III across the entire meeting cycle. It won Race 4
on the August Cup Day, won Race 4 on Winter Day 2, and the handicapper has
retained its 9-0 allocation in Division II & III over 1000m. This is the
banker of the entire card. My favourite is Bellatrix with complete conviction.
The divergence is in place and fluke: the book selects Construct Craft (8-4) as
place and Alaska (8-10) as fluke. I prefer the opposite. Alaska (8-10, formerly
Sarkar Raj) sits at second highest weight — 4 pounds below Bellatrix and 6
above Construct Craft. The horse previously known as Sarkar Raj competed in the
War Heroes Cup finale and carried top weight authority throughout its career.
At 8-10 in Division II & III, it is the natural place selection above
Construct Craft. Construct Craft (8-4) is my fluke — it has won two cup races
at this meeting including the Rashid Minhas Cup and the August Cup race from
various weight positions, and carries proven championship form. Both the book's
and my selections differ only in the order of place and fluke — we agree all
three horses are the frame candidates.



