An only best day’s defined result

 

By Asher Butt and Abid Sultan

Eight races, four upsets, two favourites, one fluke and one place winner. The book hit two favourites and I hit one (Hamza Pride, as co-favourite).

Book favs hit 2 / 8

My favs hit 1 / 8

Upset winners 4

Fluke winner R1

Place winner R6

Race-by-race results

Race	1st	2nd	3rd	Book fav	My fav
R1 · Noon Div I 1000m	1Abdullah Pasrur	2Tiger	3Silent Melody	Silent Melody 3rd	Sophia out
R2 · 12:35 Div VI 1000m	1Drago (as reported)	2American Star	3Sosig Go	Mirza Prince out	Mirza Prince out
R3 · 1:10 Div VI 1000m	1Coach House Grey	2Naveed-e-Sahar	3Thunder Pride	Naveed-e-Sahar 2nd	Thunder Pride 3rd
R4 · 1:45 Class VI 1100m	1Princess Noor	2Ceasar	3Pakiza	Green Card out	Perfect Again out
R5 · 2:20 Neelam Cup 1100m	1Hamza Pride	2Bella Forever	3Pakistani Queen	Hamza Pride won	Hamza Pride won
R6 · 2:55 Div I&II 1000m	1Jalsa	2Moni Prince	3Eden Queen	Moni Prince 2nd	Syamod Queen out
R7 · 3:30 Div I&II 1100m	1Peele Wains	2Luckvir	3Alaska	Counter Strike out	Samara out
R8 · 4:05 Div I&V 1100m	1Fakhar-e-Panjgran	2Coach House Pari	3Singhar	Fakhar-e-Panjgran won	Kalab's Queen out

Result type by race

R1 Fluke won

R2 Upset

R3 Upset

R4 Upset

R5 Fav won

R6 Place won

R7 Upset

R8 Fav won

Race by race:

Race 1, Division I (1000m): Abdullah Pasrur, the book’s fluke at the very bottom of the weights (7-10), won the opener. Tiger (my place) ran second and Silent Melody (the book’s favourite and my fluke) was third, so two of my three selections framed. Sophia (9-0, my favourite) was unplaced. A 7-10 horse beating the 9-0 top weight by 14 pounds is the day’s first sign that weight carried little authority.

Race 2, Division VI (1000m): The winner was reported as “Drago”, which doesn’t match the performance of any horse in the declared field. American Star (7-8) ran second and Sosig Go (the book’s place) third. Mirza Prince (9-2), the agreed favourite, missed the frame again. That makes three consecutive Winter Meeting outings carrying the highest weight in the race without a win.

Race 3, Division VI (1000m): Coach House Grey (8-0) won from 14 pounds below Thunder Pride (9-0). Naveed-e-Sahar (the book’s favourite) was second and Thunder Pride third. Thunder Pride’s two earlier wins this meeting made it my banker, and it only managed third. The book’s favourite at least framed, but neither side called the winner.

Race 4, Class VI (1100m): Princess Noor won from 8-8 against Perfect Again at 9-0. Ceasar (my place) ran second and Pakiza third. Green Card, the book’s favourite, was unplaced. Ceasar has now framed in successive Class VI cups, which makes it a steady frame horse even though it hasn’t won.

Race 5, The Neelam Cup (1100m): The feature went as predicted. Hamza Pride, the book’s favourite and my co-favourite, beat Bella Forever, who was second as both the book’s place and mine. Pakistani Queen took third. I flagged this level-weights maiden as genuinely open, so calling the first two of a seven-horse 8-8 group is the best result of the card. Hamza Pride’s second place in the Bon Voyage Cup was the right form clue.

Race 6, Division I & II (1000m): Jalsa, the book’s place, won with a late run. Moni Prince (the book’s favourite and my place) was second and Eden Queen (the book’s fluke) third. All three book selections framed, with the place horse beating the favourite. Syamod Queen (9-0, my favourite) was unplaced.

Race 7, Division I & II (1100m): Peele Wains (8-6) won, with Luckvir second and Alaska (the book’s place) third. Samara (9-0), the book’s fluke and my favourite, did not frame. Counter Strike, the book’s favourite, was out as well. Neither selection set covered this one.

Race 8, Division I & V (1100m): Fakhar-e-Panjgran won easily as the book’s favourite. Coach House Pari (the book’s place) was second and Singhar (my fluke) third. The book covered the first two exactly. Kalab’s Queen (9-0, my favourite and the book’s fluke) was beaten again.

Day 9 summary: The 9-0 top weights I backed failed to convert in seven of eight races: Sophia, Mirza Prince, Thunder Pride, Perfect Again, Syamod Queen, Samara and Kalab’s Queen. The book’s call on Fakhar-e-Panjgran, who won from 8-4 over a 9-0 horse, was the day’s best weight-defying result. My selections did well in the places, with Tiger, Ceasar, Bella Forever, Moni Prince and Singhar all in the frame. The pattern across the Winter Meeting is that top weight predicts a frame finish far better than a win. It also shows how little separates the flagged selections from the rest of the field in races like these, which is why even the day’s two clean favourite wins were the book’s calls rather than mine.