Hit none but finish in LRC frame

 

By Asher Butt and Abid Sultan

The book hit two favourites from six (Thunder Pride and Coach House Pari). I hit none, though several of my selections finished in the frame. One race went to an upset, two to place horses, and two as well to a fluke.

Book favs hit 2 / 6

My favs hit 0 / 6

Upset winner R1

Place winners 3

Fluke winner R5

Race-by-race results

Race	1st	2nd	3rd	Book fav	My fav
R1 · 1:00 Maiden 1000m	1JK One	2Chuppa Rustam	3Tehran Shan	Jutt Gee out	Chuppa Rustam 2nd
R2 · 1:35 Div VI&VII 1000m	1Thunder Pride	2Mid Night Grace	3Wake Up	Thunder Pride won	Wake Up 3rd
R3 · 2:10 Punjab Cup 1200m	1Samara	2Makhmoor	3Counter Strike	Makhmoor 2nd	Kamal out
R4 · 2:45 Div I&II 1200m	1First Love	2Pakistani Champion	3Farrier Star	Dubai's Dream out	Moni Prince out
R5 · 3:20 Class VI 1300m	1Sikandar	2Ameera	3Ceaser	Ceaser 3rd	Ceaser 3rd
R6 · 3:55 Div III-V 1000m	1Coach House Pari	2Ustrana Love	3Safe Bet	Coach House Pari won	Safe Bet 3rd

Result type by race

R1 Upset

R2 Fav won

R3 Place won

R4 Place won

R5 Fluke won

R6 Fav won

Race by race:

Race 1, Maiden (1000m): JK One won and nobody had selected it. In my selections, Chuppa Rustam (one of my joint top weights) was second, and Tehran Shan (the book’s fluke and mine) was third. The book’s favourite Jutt Gee and place Raees Sahib were unplaced. The maiden division has now produced an unexpected winner several times this meeting. Top weight gave me the runner-up, but not the winner.

Race 2, Division VI & VII (1000m): Thunder Pride won as the book’s favourite. My plan was to rank it third, as my fluke, and that was the wrong call. Mid Night Grace ran a surprise second and Wake Up, my favourite and the book’s place, was third. Thunder Pride dropped to 8-10 after a third at 9-0 and won comfortably. It’s a good reminder that I had it right on form and wrong on rank.

Race 3, Punjab Cup (1200m): Samara, the book’s place, won under Abdullah Amir. Makhmoor, the book’s favourite, was second and Counter Strike, my fluke, third. I had Samara in neither of my top three, and I questioned the book’s choice of it. That was my miss. Kamal, my favourite, and Sun Classique, my place, did not frame. Only Counter Strike landed for me.

Race 4, Division I & II (1200m): First Love won, as the book’s place and mine. The report calls it “Falling for First Love”, which I read as First Love. Pakistani Champion (second) and Farrier Star (third) were not among the horses I selected. Neither the book’s favourite Dubai’s Dream nor my favourite Moni Prince was in the frame. This was my best selection of the card.

Race 5, Class VI (1300m): Sikandar won as the book’s fluke and mine. Ameera, my place, was second and Ceaser, the agreed favourite, third. All three of my picks finished in the frame, though the order was wrong. That makes it my cleanest race of the day for frame coverage. Ceaser has now finished second or third at every recent Class VI start without winning. In the report it was the favourite, but in practice it behaves as a frame horse, not a winning horse.

Race 6, Division III, IV & V (1000m): Coach House Pari won as the book’s favourite. Ustrana Love was a surprise second and Safe Bet, my favourite, third. I had Coach House Pari second in my own order. The book had it first and was right. Safe Bet ran third for the third consecutive start despite its top weight.

Day 10 summary: I picked a favourite in each race and none of them won. Wake Up, Ceaser and Safe Bet all finished third, and Chuppa Rustam second. That has been the pattern all meeting: my top picks reach the frame but do not win. The book’s two wins came from horses whose weights had fallen sharply from earlier races, Thunder Pride and Coach House Pari. Where a horse has dropped 8 pounds or more from a recent run, as both of these had, I should weight that more heavily next time and treat top weight alone as a weaker signal.