LRC day-four pre-race assessment

 

LRC day four pre-race assessment

Asher Butt

4th Day — Lahore Winter Meeting 2026-2027
Sunday, 27th September 2026 | 5 Races | First Race 2:30 PM
Races 1 & 2 over 900m | Race 3 & 5 over 1000m | Race 4 over 1100m

 

Race 1 · 2:30 PM — Class VII Division VII — 900m

Field of 10

#	Horse	Weight
1	Chika Rika 4	8-12
2	One Side 8	8-9
3	Torpedo 6	8-8
4	Al Murtajiz 7	8-4
5	Gee-o-Lahori 5	8-4
6	Naveed-e-Sahar 2	8-4
7	Silent Melody 11	7-10
8	American Star 9	7-10
9	Hamdan Prince 3	7-8
10	Raees Sahib 10	7-8

Book Fav: Naveed-e-Sahar | Book Place: One Side | Book Fluke: Chika Rika

My Fav: Chika Rika | My Place: One Side | My Fluke: Torpedo

My reasoning: Chika Rika (8-12) carries the outright top weight in this ten-horse Division VII field — 3 pounds ahead of One Side, 4 ahead of Torpedo, and a full 8 pounds clear of the three-way tie at 8-4 that includes the book's favourite Naveed-e-Sahar. The book making Naveed-e-Sahar (8-4) the favourite at joint fourth weight while ignoring the top weight is a bold form-over-weight call that the Winter Meeting's 900m data partially supports — but over Division VII at 900m with a ten-horse field, the weight band from 8-12 down to 8-4 separates clearly and Chika Rika's 8-12 is a distinct structural advantage. My favourite is Chika Rika. One Side (8-9) at second highest weight is the natural place — the book agrees and it sits in the classic frame profile. Torpedo (8-8) is my fluke — it has been allocated 9-0 previously and its reduced weight of 8-8 here may allow it to run with more freedom. Naveed-e-Sahar (8-4) as the book's favourite at joint fourth weight concedes 8 pounds to the top weight — a significant give at the full first-race trip.

 

Race 2 · 3:05 PM — Class VII Division V & VI — 900m

Field of 12

#	Horse	Weight
1	Wake Up 12	9-0
2	Princess Arooj 3	9-0
3	Ghazal 8	8-10
4	Lucky Macs 4	8-10
5	Black Fire 6	8-8
6	True Promise 9	8-6
7	Royal Stone 7	8-6
8	Tiger of Sultan 13	8-6
9	Sky Warrior 10	8-2
10	Babbar Sher 5	7-12
11	Prince of Kashmir 11	7-12
12	True My Love 2	7-10

Book Fav: Royal Stone | Book Place: Black Fire | Book Fluke: Babbar Sher

My Fav: Wake Up | My Place: Princess Arooj | My Fluke: Ghazal

My reasoning: The book and I diverge sharply. Wake Up (9-0) and Princess Arooj (9-0) share the outright top weight — 4 pounds ahead of Ghazal and Lucky Macs, 6 ahead of Black Fire, and a full 12 pounds ahead of the book's favourite Royal Stone (8-6). The book making Royal Stone the favourite at 8-6 while two horses carry 9-0 is a form-over-weight call that contradicts the weight structure emphatically. Both Wake Up and Princess Arooj have been consistent top-weight performers throughout the meeting cycle. Wake Up won Race 5 on Day 2 of the Summer Meeting and Winter Day 2 Race 2, establishing itself as one of the most reliable performers at this weight band. My favourite is Wake Up. Princess Arooj (9-0) — winner of Race 1 on Day 8 of the Summer Meeting and consistent frame finisher — is the natural place selection at joint top weight. Ghazal (8-10) is my fluke — it won Race 2 of the War Heroes Cup as an upset from 8-2 and has now been elevated to 8-10, the third highest weight in this twelve-runner field. The book's trio of Royal Stone (fav), Black Fire (place), and Babbar Sher (fluke) all sit well below the two 9-0 allocations over 900m in a twelve-horse field.

 

Race 3 · 3:40 PM — Class VII Division IV & V — 1000m

Field of 7

#	Horse	Weight
1	Paddington 2	9-0
2	Shair-e-Niaz Baig 8	8-12
3	Be A Man 5	8-12
4	Haseeb Thunder 7	8-0
5	Gondal Baba 6	8-0
6	Raja The Great 4	8-0
7	Fakhar-e-Sardar 3	7-12

Book Fav: Haseeb Thunder | Book Place: Raja The Great | Book Fluke: Paddington

My Fav: Paddington | My Place: Shair-e-Niaz Baig | My Fluke: Be A Man

My reasoning: Complete and emphatic disagreement with the book. Paddington (9-0) carries the outright top weight over 1000m in Division IV & V — 2 pounds ahead of Shair-e-Niaz Baig and Be A Man, 14 pounds ahead of the book's favourite Haseeb Thunder (8-0), and 16 ahead of Fakhar-e-Sardar at 7-12. The book making Haseeb Thunder the favourite while designating Paddington the fluke — in a seven-horse field over 1000m where Paddington carries clear top weight authority — is one of the most analytically difficult book calls to rationalise across the entire Winter Meeting. Paddington won Race 4 on the August Cup Day from top weight, won Race 5 on Day 10 of the Summer Meeting, and the handicapper has now allocated it 9-0 in Division IV & V over the full 1000m. The race data throughout the meeting consistently shows that at 1000m in senior divisions, the top weight prevails. My favourite is Paddington without hesitation. Shair-e-Niaz Baig (8-12) at second highest weight alongside Be A Man is my place — it framed in Race 6 of the War Heroes Cup and carries consistent upper-weight form. Be A Man (8-12) is my fluke — it has been one of the meeting's most competitive horses across multiple divisions and shares the second weight position. Haseeb Thunder (8-0) conceding 14 pounds to the top weight over 1000m as the book's favourite is a call I cannot support regardless of its recent pace.

 

Race 4 · 4:15 PM — Class VI — 1100m

Field of 4 (- 4 supplementaries)

#	Horse	Weight
1	Nisha 5	9-2
2	Queen of Pharaoh 3	8-4
3	Sultan 4	8-2
4	Sher Khan 2	7-12

Book Fav: Sultan | Book Place: Queen of Pharaoh | Book Fluke: Sher Khan

My Fav: Nisha | My Place: Queen of Pharaoh | My Fluke: Sultan

My reasoning: Nisha (9-2) carries the outright top weight in this four-horse Class VI field — 14 pounds ahead of Queen of Pharaoh, 16 clear of Sultan, and 22 pounds clear of Sher Khan. The book makes Sultan (8-2) the favourite while designating Nisha the fluke — exactly the same structural inversion it applied to the September Cup three weeks ago where Nisha also carried 9-4 and the book also made the lighter horse the favourite. Nisha's September Cup second place (beaten only by Green Card) on the longer 1200m trip is the most recent evidence: it framed under significant weight, ran competitively, and the handicapper has kept its 9-2 allocation for this 1100m Class VI race. My favourite is Nisha. The four supplementaries (- 4) are unknown quantities that could reshape this field entirely — if any carry significant weight, the analysis may need revisiting at declaration time. Queen of Pharaoh (8-4) is my place — it won the Major Shabbir Sharif Cup in the War Heroes meeting from the place position and carries the second highest declared weight. Sultan (8-2) drops to my fluke — it is the book's favourite and carries legitimate form, but conceding 16 pounds to Nisha over 1100m in Class VI is a structural disadvantage that the extended distance makes more pronounced.

 

Race 5 · 4:50 PM — Class VII Division II & III — 1000m

Field of 6 (+ X Sarkar Raj supplementary)

#	Horse	Weight
1	Bellatrix 5	9-0
2	Alaska 7 (X Sarkar Raj)	8-10
3	Construct Craft 2	8-4
4	Imperius 3	8-2
5	Mister Sardar 4	8-1
6	Desert Parri 6	7-10

Book Fav: Bellatrix | Book Place: Construct Craft | Book Fluke: Alaska

My Fav: Bellatrix | My Place: Alaska | My Fluke: Construct Craft

My reasoning: Full agreement on the favourite — Bellatrix (9-0) has been the outstanding horse of Division II & III across the entire meeting cycle. It won Race 4 on the August Cup Day, won Race 4 on Winter Day 2, and the handicapper has retained its 9-0 allocation in Division II & III over 1000m. This is the banker of the entire card. My favourite is Bellatrix with complete conviction. The divergence is in place and fluke: the book selects Construct Craft (8-4) as place and Alaska (8-10) as fluke. I prefer the opposite. Alaska (8-10, formerly Sarkar Raj) sits at second highest weight — 4 pounds below Bellatrix and 6 above Construct Craft. The horse previously known as Sarkar Raj competed in the War Heroes Cup finale and carried top weight authority throughout its career. At 8-10 in Division II & III, it is the natural place selection above Construct Craft. Construct Craft (8-4) is my fluke — it has won two cup races at this meeting including the Rashid Minhas Cup and the August Cup race from various weight positions, and carries proven championship form. Both the book's and my selections differ only in the order of place and fluke — we agree all three horses are the frame candidates.