LRC day five assessment

 

By Asher Butt

The 5th Day —Winter Meeting 2026-27 of the Lahore Race Club has Nonahal Cup and Syed Mansab Ali Shah Memorial Cup as the main features of the Sunday assembly.

Sunday, 4th October 2026 | 6 Races | First Race Race 1 over 1000m | Races 2 & 3 over 1100m | Race 4 over 1000m | Race 5 over 1200m | Race 6 over 1200m

 

Race 1— Class VII Division VII — 1000m

Field of 10 (+ 4 All supplementaries)

#	Horse	Weight
1	One Side 8	9-0
2	Lady Sareena 10	8-12
3	Thunder Pride 4 (X Bilal One)	8-8
4	Al Murtajiz 7	8-6
5	Gallop In Glory 6	8-2
6	Pocket Power 5	8-2
7	Sosig Go 9	8-0
8	Silent Melody 11	8-0
9	Grace 3	8-0
10	Raees Sahib 2	7-12

Book Fav: Pocket Power | Book Place: Gallop In Glory | Book Fluke: Thunder Pride

My Fav: One Side | My Place: Lady Sareena | My Fluke: Thunder Pride

My reasoning: One Side (9-0) carries the outright top weight in a ten-horse Division VII field over the full 1000m. The book makes Pocket Power (8-2) the favourite at joint sixth weight — conceding 12 pounds to the top weight over the full distance. Winter Day 5's return to 1000m makes weight authority more relevant than on the 900m days, and One Side at 9-0 with 2 pounds over Lady Sareena and 6 over Thunder Pride is the structural selection. My favourite is One Side. Lady Sareena (8-12) at second highest weight is the natural place — she has been a consistent frame finisher throughout the meeting cycle. Thunder Pride (8-8) is my fluke and I agree with the book here — it has been renamed from Bilal One, a horse that won three times during the Summer Meeting from various weight positions. At 8-8 as the third highest weight in the field, its pace credentials over 1000m make it a credible frame candidate. Pocket Power (8-2) as the book's favourite — conceding 12 pounds to the top weight over 1000m — is a form call that contradicts the weight structure at this distance.

 

Race 2 · 2:05 PM — Class VII Division V & VI — 1100m

Field of 10

#	Horse	Weight
1	Raja The Great 3	9-0
2	Dogar Choice 5	8-8
3	Sultan Again 4	8-6
4	Roxy 2	8-0
5	Ghazal 11	7-10
6	Piyari 9	7-10
7	Lucky Macs 7	7-10
8	Sher Dil 8	7-10
9	Naveed-e-Sahar 6	7-8
10	True My Love 10	7-8

Book Fav: Sultan Again | Book Place: Dogar Choice | Book Fluke: Raja The Great

My Fav: Raja The Great | My Place: Dogar Choice | My Fluke: Sultan Again

My reasoning: Raja The Great (9-0) carries the outright top weight in a ten-horse Division V & VI field over 1100m — 6 pounds ahead of Dogar Choice and 8 ahead of Sultan Again. The book makes Sultan Again (8-6) the favourite while relegating Raja The Great to fluke despite it carrying 6 more pounds over an extended 1100m trip. At 1100m — between the 1000m and 1200m distances — weight authority is significant and Raja The Great's 9-0 allocation is the handicapper's clearest statement on this race. My favourite is Raja The Great. Dogar Choice (8-8) at second highest weight is my place — the book agrees and its track record across the meeting supports a frame position. Sultan Again (8-6) drops to my fluke — it won Race 4 on Winter Day 4 from the book's favourite position at 8-2 in Class VI, but here concedes a full 8 pounds to Raja The Great over the longer 1100m trip. The four-way cluster at 7-10 at the bottom of the field poses an upset threat but the weight structure points firmly to the top three.

 

Race 3 · 2:40 PM — Class VII Division III & IV — 1100m

Field of 8

#	Horse	Weight
1	Be A Man 6	9-2
2	Emerging Star 2	8-12
3	Desert Parri 5	8-8
4	Safe Bet 3	8-8
5	Paddington 8	8-2
6	Fatteh Prince 4	8-2
7	Shair-e-Niaz Baig 9	8-0
8	Haseeb Thunder 7	7-8

Book Fav: Safe Bet | Book Place: Emerging Star | Book Fluke: Haseeb Thunder

My Fav: Be A Man | My Place: Emerging Star | My Fluke: Safe Bet

My reasoning: Be A Man (9-2) carries the highest individual weight allocation on the entire five-day card — a full 4 pounds ahead of Emerging Star, 8 ahead of Desert Parri and Safe Bet, and a remarkable 18 pounds ahead of Haseeb Thunder. The book makes Safe Bet (8-8) the favourite while designating Be A Man the fluke in what is now a recurring pattern: the book routinely ignores top-weight horses over 1100m in favour of mid-weight form picks. However, Be A Man won Race 3 on Winter Day 4 as a genuine upset from 8-12 — the handicapper has now elevated it to 9-2 in response, the largest weight rise of any horse at this Winter Meeting. That elevation signals absolute confidence. My favourite is Be A Man with full conviction. Emerging Star (8-12) at second weight is my place — the book agrees and it has been consistently competitive throughout the meeting cycle. Safe Bet (8-8) is my fluke — the book's favourite has legitimate form claims at 8-8 but concedes a full 8 pounds to Be A Man over the extended 1100m distance.

 

Race 4 · 3:15 PM — The Nonahal Cup — 2-Year-Old Fillies (Maiden) TBP & HB — 1000m

Field of 7

#	Horse	Weight
1	Kitten's Boy 6	8-8
2	Pakistani Champion 2	8-8
3	Bella Forever 3	8-5
4	Gujrat Eleven 8	8-5
5	Pakistani Queen 7	8-5
6	Princess Shahami 5	8-5
7	River 4	8-5

Book: No declared favourites — maiden two-year-old fillies race

My Fav: Kitten's Boy / Pakistani Champion (joint top) | My Place: Bella Forever | My Fluke: Pakistani Queen

My reasoning: This is a specialist maiden race for two-year-old fillies under TBP (Thoroughbred Pakistan) and HB (Half-Bred) classification — the most unpredictable race type in the entire meeting calendar. With no declared book favourites, the weight structure is the only analytical tool available. Kitten's Boy (8-8) and Pakistani Champion (8-8) share the joint top weight — 3 pounds ahead of the five-way cluster at 8-5. In a maiden filly race at two years old, the weight ceiling signals the handicapper's assessment of relative ability even among unproven horses. My primary selection is the joint top-weight pair — one of the two is the most likely winner. Bella Forever (8-5) at joint third weight is my place — a natural frame selection. Pakistani Queen (8-5) is my fluke — in a five-way dead heat at 8-5, a pace-dependent result over 1000m could produce any of the five as the third finisher, and Pakistani Queen's name suggests connections who take the sport seriously. In truth, this race is genuinely open and no prediction should be held with great conviction.

 

Race 5 · 3:50 PM — Syed Mansab Ali Shah Memorial Cup
Class VII Division II & III (Maiden) — 1200m

Field of 5

#	Horse	Weight
1	Almond Eye 2	8-7
2	Bella One 4	8-5
3	Ghuroor 3	8-4
4	Saltanat 6	7-13
5	Moni Ka Arman 5	7-12

Book Fav: Ghuroor | Book Place: Moni Ka Arman | Book Fluke: Almond Eye

My Fav: Almond Eye | My Place: Bella One | My Fluke: Ghuroor

My reasoning: Almond Eye (8-7) carries the outright top weight in this five-horse maiden cup race over 1200m — 2 pounds ahead of Bella One, 3 ahead of the book's favourite Ghuroor, and a full 9 pounds clear of Moni Ka Arman at 7-12. The book makes Ghuroor (8-4) the favourite despite conceding 3 pounds to the top weight over the longest trip in the maiden division. At 1200m — where weight authority compounds with distance — the structural advantage of 8-7 over a five-horse field is decisive. My favourite is Almond Eye. Bella One (8-5) at second highest weight is my place — 2 pounds below the top and well-placed for a frame finish in a small field. Ghuroor (8-4) drops to my fluke — the book's confidence is form-based and it remains a legitimate frame candidate, but the weight concession over 1200m in a maiden cup makes it harder to justify as the outright favourite analytically.

 

Race 6 · 4:25 PM — Class VII Division I & II (incl. Class VI Div IV) — 1200m

Field of 7 (+ 2 D.I supplementaries)

#	Horse	Weight
1	Ameera 2	9-2
2	Sikandar 5	8-6
3	Dawood Prince 8	8-6
4	Construct Craft 3	8-5
5	Lord & Lion 6	8-0
6	Alaska 7	8-0
7	Falco 4	6-0

Book Fav: Dawood Prince | Book Place: Sikandar | Book Fluke: Ameera

My Fav: Ameera | My Place: Sikandar | My Fluke: Dawood Prince

My reasoning: The most analytically loaded race of the card and the sharpest divergence from the book. Ameera (9-2) carries the outright top weight — 10 pounds ahead of Sikandar and Dawood Prince, 11 ahead of Construct Craft, and a remarkable 21 pounds ahead of Falco. The book makes Dawood Prince (8-6) the favourite and designates Ameera the fluke — a complete inversion of the weight structure over 1200m in Division I & II. Ameera's 9-2 allocation in the season's senior division over the longest distance of the card is the handicapper's most emphatic confidence statement on the entire Day 5 card. Dawood Prince has proven form — it won the Gujrat Cup match race on Day 4 of the Summer Meeting and the Aziz Bhatti Cup race — but conceding 10 pounds to Ameera over 1200m in Division I & II is a structural disadvantage that the distance makes increasingly significant. My favourite is Ameera with complete conviction. Sikandar (8-6) at joint second weight alongside Dawood Prince is my place — the book agrees. My fluke is Dawood Prince — the book's favourite drops to my third selection, acknowledging its form while maintaining that the weight logic places Ameera and Sikandar above it structurally. Falco at 6-0 is a puzzling bottom weight and likely running for experience rather than a place in the frame.